Toyama Grouses vs. Osaka Evessa

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Toyama Grouses (67%) · Toyama Grouses at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Toyama Grouses86¢Osaka Evessa14¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Toyama Grouses

Consensus Traders

Toyama Grouses 67%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$142.28

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 86¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidToyama Grouses at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toyama Grouses

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toyama Grouses86%

Osaka Evessa14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toyama Grouses4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,294

Combined PnL-$88.3

Osaka Evessa2 traders

Total Value$384.3

Total Shares769

Combined PnL+$230.58

Toyama Grouses — 67%Osaka Evessa — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Toyama Grousesavg 83.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$40.22	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
SE sentrio	Toyama Grousesavg 84¢	$290.59	$297.44	+$6.85	37% 340-570 (910)
VE VenusianCTR	Osaka Evessaavg 20¢	$108.18	$270.45	+$162.27	30% 377-862 (1239)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Toyama Grousesavg 82¢	$264.88	$161.51	-$103.37	60% 435-296 (731)
LI LimousinCTR	Osaka Evessaavg 20¢	$45.54	$113.85	+$68.31	30% 373-863 (1236)
VeryLucky888<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 82¢	$82	$50	-$32	52% 445-417 (862)

Flaznorp

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$1,273.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$40.22

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

sentrio

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$290.59

Value

$297.44

PnL

+$6.85

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

VenusianCTR

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$108.18

Value

$270.45

PnL

+$162.27

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$264.88

Value

$161.51

PnL

-$103.37

Record

60%

435-296 (731)

LimousinCTR

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$45.54

Value

$113.85

PnL

+$68.31

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

VeryLucky888<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$82

Value

$50

PnL

-$32

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Research grade

AvoidToyama Grouses at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toyama Grouses

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toyama Grouses wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.