Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ibaraki Robots, while the market favors Shinshu Brave Warriors (67%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Shinshu Brave Warriors vs. Ibaraki Robots

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ibaraki Robots (82%) · Ibaraki Robots at 34¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Shinshu Brave Warriors67¢Ibaraki Robots33¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ibaraki Robots

Consensus Traders

Ibaraki Robots 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$337.06

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 33.5¢

-23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidIbaraki Robots at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ibaraki Robots

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Shinshu Brave Warriors 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shinshu Brave Warriors67%

Ibaraki Robots34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shinshu Brave Warriors2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,138

Combined PnL-$49.89

Ibaraki Robots9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,198

Combined PnL-$287.17

Shinshu Brave Warriors — 18%Ibaraki Robots — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ibaraki Robots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIbaraki Robots 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ibaraki Robots 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 68.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$43.22	62% 1165-716 (1881)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ibaraki Robotsavg 42.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$223.32	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
BA BayupatiCTR	Ibaraki Robotsavg 50¢	$276.25	$245.86	-$30.39	19% 37-154 (191)
tradecraftARB<$100	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 64.3¢	$178.17	$185.21	+$7.04	33% 430-871 (1301)
└ Shinshu Brave Warriors leg	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 64.3¢	$100.95	$104.37	+$3.41
└ Ibaraki Robots leg	Ibaraki Robotsavg 32¢	$77.21	$80.84	+$3.63
LI LightParadoxCTR	Ibaraki Robotsavg 50¢	$191.57	$170.5	-$21.07	38% 1233-2055 (3288)
LI LimousinCTR	Ibaraki Robotsavg 33.8¢	$103.95	$102.99	-$0.96	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
VeryLucky888	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 66¢	$321.58	$74.67	-$6.67	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 50¢	$61.78	$54.98	-$6.8	41% 1132-1606 (2738)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 29¢	$14.38	$15.12	+$0.74	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 45.5¢	$18.13	$12.56	-$5.57	48% 2369-2583 (4952)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 32.5¢	$7.28	$7.51	+$0.22	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 34¢	$1.94	$1.91	-$0.03	38% 1242-1999 (3241)

vibing123

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$1,391.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$43.22

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

FlaznorpCTR

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$1,227.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$223.32

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

BayupatiCTR

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$276.25

Value

$245.86

PnL

-$30.39

Record

19%

37-154 (191)

tradecraftARB<$100

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$178.17

Value

$185.21

PnL

+$7.04

Record

33%

430-871 (1301)

Both legs:

Shinshu Brave Warriors$100.9564.3¢+$3.41

Ibaraki Robots$77.2132¢+$3.63

LightParadoxCTR

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$191.57

Value

$170.5

PnL

-$21.07

Record

38%

1233-2055 (3288)

LimousinCTR

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$103.95

Value

$102.99

PnL

-$0.96

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

VeryLucky888

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$321.58

Value

$74.67

PnL

-$6.67

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

sentrioCTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$61.78

Value

$54.98

PnL

-$6.8

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$14.38

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$0.74

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$18.13

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$5.57

Record

48%

2369-2583 (4952)

VenusianCTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$0.22

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

Research grade

AvoidIbaraki Robots at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ibaraki Robots

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Shinshu Brave Warriors 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ibaraki Robots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIbaraki Robots 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ibaraki Robots 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ibaraki Robots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.