Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic, while the market favors Utsunomiya Brex (52%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Shimane Susanoo Magic vs. Utsunomiya Brex

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic (27%) · Shimane Susanoo Magic at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 22

Shimane Susanoo Magic48¢Utsunomiya Brex52¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Consensus Traders

Shimane Susanoo Magic 27%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$745.21

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 48¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Utsunomiya Brex 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shimane Susanoo Magic48%

Utsunomiya Brex52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shimane Susanoo Magic3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,048

Combined PnL+$299.62

Utsunomiya Brex8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,344

Combined PnL+$445.59

Shimane Susanoo Magic — 27%Utsunomiya Brex — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Shimane Susanoo Magic) and the top 1000 (8 on Utsunomiya Brex) disagree here.

ctrUtsunomiya Brex 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Utsunomiya Brex 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310CTR	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.4K	+$300	— 11-7 (18)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$202.21	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
└ Utsunomiya Brex leg	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$170.06
└ Shimane Susanoo Magic leg	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 40.7¢	$346.91	$379.06	+$32.14
LI Limousin	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$202.65	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
VI vibing123	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$189.54	62% 1165-716 (1881)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 47.9¢	$541.86	$539.84	-$2.02	46% 577-678 (1255)
└ Utsunomiya Brex leg	Utsunomiya Brexavg 47.9¢	$393.69	$378.04	-$15.65
└ Shimane Susanoo Magic leg	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 53.1¢	$148.17	$161.81	+$13.64
VE Venusian	Utsunomiya Brexavg 46.2¢	$394.88	$491.57	+$96.7	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 48.9¢	$495.57	$272.24	-$47.04	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
└ Shimane Susanoo Magic leg	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 48.9¢	$181.74	$156.24	-$65.04
└ Utsunomiya Brex leg	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$98	$116	+$18
tradecraft	Utsunomiya Brexavg 48.7¢	$167.9	$159.65	-$8.25	33% 430-871 (1301)
SN SnakeBall	Utsunomiya Brexavg 60¢	$202.45	$155.22	-$47.24	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
NA NatoAlfista	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$105.84	$124.2	+$18.36	44% 227-289 (516)
FE ferdinand2	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$105.54	$88.45	-$4.37	48% 2369-2583 (4952)
LI LightParadox<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 48.3¢	$37.78	$35.98	-$1.8	38% 1233-2055 (3288)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 56¢	$15.65	$15.1	-$0.56	35% 79-147 (226)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 43¢	$24.84	$8.58	+$0.19	59% 521-357 (878)

viper0310CTR

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$5,099.93

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$300

Record

—

11-7 (18)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$1,627.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$202.21

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

Both legs:

Utsunomiya Brex$1,280.3649¢+$170.06

Shimane Susanoo Magic$346.9140.7¢+$32.14

Limousin

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$1,105.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$202.65

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

vibing123

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$1,031.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$189.54

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$541.86

Value

$539.84

PnL

-$2.02

Record

46%

577-678 (1255)

Both legs:

Utsunomiya Brex$393.6947.9¢-$15.65

Shimane Susanoo Magic$148.1753.1¢+$13.64

Venusian

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$394.88

Value

$491.57

PnL

+$96.7

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$495.57

Value

$272.24

PnL

-$47.04

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

Both legs:

Shimane Susanoo Magic$181.7448.9¢-$65.04

Utsunomiya Brex$9849¢+$18

tradecraft

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$167.9

Value

$159.65

PnL

-$8.25

Record

33%

430-871 (1301)

SnakeBall

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$202.45

Value

$155.22

PnL

-$47.24

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

NatoAlfista

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$105.84

Value

$124.2

PnL

+$18.36

Record

44%

227-289 (516)

ferdinand2

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$105.54

Value

$88.45

PnL

-$4.37

Record

48%

2369-2583 (4952)

LightParadox<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$37.78

Value

$35.98

PnL

-$1.8

Record

38%

1233-2055 (3288)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$15.65

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$0.56

Record

35%

79-147 (226)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$24.84

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.19

Record

59%

521-357 (878)

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Utsunomiya Brex 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Shimane Susanoo Magic) and the top 1000 (8 on Utsunomiya Brex) disagree here.

ctrUtsunomiya Brex 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Utsunomiya Brex 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shimane Susanoo Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.