Shimane Susanoo Magic vs. Toyama Grouses

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic (80%) · Shimane Susanoo Magic at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Shimane Susanoo Magic55¢Toyama Grouses45¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Consensus Traders

Shimane Susanoo Magic 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$144.78

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 55¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shimane Susanoo Magic55%

Toyama Grouses45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shimane Susanoo Magic8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,077

Combined PnL-$145.88

Toyama Grouses2 traders

Total Value$21.24

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$1.1

Shimane Susanoo Magic — 80%Toyama Grouses — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO Notradecopy	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 66¢	$1,000	$954.54	-$7.58	48% 4192-4518 (8710)
FL Flaznorp	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 65.4¢	$1.1K	$913.24	-$148.85	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 62¢	$782.62	$807.86	+$25.25	50% 3068-3022 (6090)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 54.3¢	$454.99	$499.66	+$44.67	50% 49148-48686 (97834)
└ Shimane Susanoo Magic leg	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 54.3¢	$275.98	$279.75	+$3.77
└ Toyama Grouses leg	Toyama Grousesavg 36.6¢	$179.01	$219.91	+$40.9
38 38791873984189	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 66¢	$79.2	$151.2	+$2.4	48% 71959-77656 (149615)
BA Bagwell306	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 62¢	$124	$125	+$1	47% 4795-5301 (10096)
SE sentrio	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 67.3¢	$130.72	$124.33	-$6.39	51% 28741-28115 (56856)
tradecraft<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 63¢	$97.08	$85.48	-$11.6	51% 6906-6563 (13469)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 44.2¢	$14.46	$14.71	+$0.25	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 39.2¢	$5.68	$6.53	+$0.84	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	50% 24077-24172 (48249)

Notradecopy

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$954.54

PnL

-$7.58

Record

48%

4192-4518 (8710)

Flaznorp

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$1,062.09

Value

$913.24

PnL

-$148.85

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$782.62

Value

$807.86

PnL

+$25.25

Record

50%

3068-3022 (6090)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$454.99

Value

$499.66

PnL

+$44.67

Record

50%

49148-48686 (97834)

Both legs:

Shimane Susanoo Magic$275.9854.3¢+$3.77

Toyama Grouses$179.0136.6¢+$40.9

38791873984189

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$79.2

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

71959-77656 (149615)

Bagwell306

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$124

Value

$125

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

4795-5301 (10096)

sentrio

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$130.72

Value

$124.33

PnL

-$6.39

Record

51%

28741-28115 (56856)

tradecraft<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$97.08

Value

$85.48

PnL

-$11.6

Record

51%

6906-6563 (13469)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$14.46

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$0.25

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

LimousinCTR<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$5.68

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$0.84

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Shimane Susanoo Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedShimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shimane Susanoo Magic 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shimane Susanoo Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.