Shiga Lakestars vs. Chiba Jets

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Shiga Lakestars (42%) · Shiga Lakestars at 83¢ · $867 held · ends Nov 19

Shiga Lakestars83¢Chiba Jets17¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shiga Lakestars

Consensus Traders

Shiga Lakestars 42%

Total Value

$867.45

Combined PnL

$87.28

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 82.5¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidShiga Lakestars at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shiga Lakestars

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shiga Lakestars83%

Chiba Jets18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shiga Lakestars5 traders

Total Value$682.48

Total Shares820

Combined PnL+$160.83

Chiba Jets7 traders

Total Value$184.97

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$73.55

Shiga Lakestars — 42%Chiba Jets — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Shiga Lakestars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chiba Jets) and the top 1000 (9 on Shiga Lakestars) disagree here.

ctrChiba Jets 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiba Jets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shiga Lakestars 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Shiga Lakestarsavg 61.1¢	$223.86	$282.57	+$58.71	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Shiga Lakestarsavg 51¢	$136.42	$187.25	+$50.82	4% 2-55 (57)
poshposh<$100	Shiga Lakestarsavg 52¢	$60.33	$97.86	+$37.53	47% 507-572 (1079)
38 38791873984189<$100	Shiga Lakestarsavg 65.5¢	$78.6	$84	+$5.4	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 33¢	$89.1	$48.6	-$40.5	42% 166-231 (397)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 16¢	$23.03	$38.86	+$15.83	42% 87-120 (207)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chiba Jetsavg 48.2¢	$205.49	$38.18	-$25.48	52% 746-692 (1438)
LR lryyy<$100	Shiga Lakestarsavg 51¢	$22.44	$30.8	+$8.36	44% 372-476 (848)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 15.7¢	$24.73	$20.45	-$4.28	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 43.9¢	$29.24	$20	-$9.24	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 49¢	$26.46	$17.28	-$9.18	39% 102-157 (259)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.6	-$0.7	33% 546-1093 (1639)

Flaznorp

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$223.86

Value

$282.57

PnL

+$58.71

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

TheComboConnoisseur

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$136.42

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$50.82

Record

2-55 (57)

poshposh<$100

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$60.33

Value

$97.86

PnL

+$37.53

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

38791873984189<$100

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$78.6

Value

$84

PnL

+$5.4

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

biying88888CTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$89.1

Value

$48.6

PnL

-$40.5

Record

42%

166-231 (397)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$23.03

Value

$38.86

PnL

+$15.83

Record

42%

87-120 (207)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chiba Jets

Invested

$205.49

Value

$38.18

PnL

-$25.48

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

lryyy<$100

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$22.44

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$8.36

Record

44%

372-476 (848)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$24.73

Value

$20.45

PnL

-$4.28

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

suntoriCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$29.24

Value

$20

PnL

-$9.24

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$26.46

Value

$17.28

PnL

-$9.18

Record

39%

102-157 (259)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.7

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

Research grade

AvoidShiga Lakestars at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shiga Lakestars

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Shiga Lakestars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chiba Jets) and the top 1000 (9 on Shiga Lakestars) disagree here.

ctrChiba Jets 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiba Jets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shiga Lakestars 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shiga Lakestars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.