SeaHorses Mikawa vs. Shinshu Brave Warriors

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold SeaHorses Mikawa (43%) · SeaHorses Mikawa at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

SeaHorses Mikawa56¢Shinshu Brave Warriors44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SeaHorses Mikawa

Consensus Traders

SeaHorses Mikawa 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$78.41

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 55.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeaHorses Mikawa at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SeaHorses Mikawa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SeaHorses Mikawa56%

Shinshu Brave Warriors45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SeaHorses Mikawa3 traders

Total Value$492.25

Total Shares866

Combined PnL-$17.59

Shinshu Brave Warriors4 traders

Total Value$254.38

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$96

SeaHorses Mikawa — 43%Shinshu Brave Warriors — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on SeaHorses Mikawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeaHorses Mikawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeaHorses Mikawa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SeaHorses Mikawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 49.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$6.53	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
└ SeaHorses Mikawa leg	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 49.1¢	$629.65	$615.04	-$14.6
└ Shinshu Brave Warriors leg	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$589.15	$610.28	+$21.14
OM omnibus-076daa	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 46.1¢	$197.16	$278.21	+$81.05	34% 163-316 (479)
VeryLucky888	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 77.7¢	$219.4	$128.51	-$75.33	48% 214-230 (444)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 19.4¢	$38.22	$100.54	+$62.33	25% 203-620 (823)
LR lryyy	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 58¢	$108.84	$85.54	-$23.3	50% 128-129 (257)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 53.8¢	$96.04	$82.95	-$13.08	52% 5311-4816 (10127)
└ SeaHorses Mikawa leg	SeaHorses Mikawaavg 53.8¢	$66.61	$52.05	-$14.56
└ Shinshu Brave Warriors leg	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 55.2¢	$29.42	$30.9	+$1.48
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 21¢	$31.86	$77.37	+$45.51	24% 205-637 (842)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 65¢	$54.6	$42.84	-$11.76	22% 81-290 (371)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Shinshu Brave Warriorsavg 58.1¢	$33.71	$33.63	-$0.08	29% 157-376 (533)

FlaznorpARB<$100

SeaHorses Mikawa

Invested

$1,218.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$6.53

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

Both legs:

SeaHorses Mikawa$629.6549.1¢-$14.6

Shinshu Brave Warriors$589.1550.2¢+$21.14

omnibus-076daa

SeaHorses Mikawa

Invested

$197.16

Value

$278.21

PnL

+$81.05

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

VeryLucky888

SeaHorses Mikawa

Invested

$219.4

Value

$128.51

PnL

-$75.33

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

MadridTimeCTR

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$38.22

Value

$100.54

PnL

+$62.33

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

lryyy

SeaHorses Mikawa

Invested

$108.84

Value

$85.54

PnL

-$23.3

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

cigarettesARB<$100

SeaHorses Mikawa

Invested

$96.04

Value

$82.95

PnL

-$13.08

Record

52%

5311-4816 (10127)

Both legs:

SeaHorses Mikawa$66.6153.8¢-$14.56

Shinshu Brave Warriors$29.4255.2¢+$1.48

VenusianCTR<$100

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$31.86

Value

$77.37

PnL

+$45.51

Record

24%

205-637 (842)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$54.6

Value

$42.84

PnL

-$11.76

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

sentrioCTR<$100

Shinshu Brave Warriors

Invested

$33.71

Value

$33.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

29%

157-376 (533)

Research grade

AvoidSeaHorses Mikawa at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

SeaHorses Mikawa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on SeaHorses Mikawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSeaHorses Mikawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeaHorses Mikawa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SeaHorses Mikawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SeaHorses Mikawa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.