Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. Tokyo Sunrockers

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Tokyo Sunrockers (14%) · Tokyo Sunrockers at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Ryukyu Golden Kings28¢Tokyo Sunrockers72¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tokyo Sunrockers

Consensus Traders

Tokyo Sunrockers 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$47.79

Research grade

AvoidTokyo Sunrockers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tokyo Sunrockers

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ryukyu Golden Kings28%

Tokyo Sunrockers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tokyo Sunrockers1 trader

Total Value$357.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$2.5

Ryukyu Golden Kings6 traders

Total Value$219.74

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$50.29

Tokyo Sunrockers — 14%Ryukyu Golden Kings — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Tokyo Sunrockers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyukyu Golden Kings 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRyukyu Golden Kings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ryukyu Golden Kings 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 43.9¢	$639.27	$450.27	-$189	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ Ryukyu Golden Kings leg	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 43.9¢	$510.04	$325.32	-$184.72
└ Tokyo Sunrockers leg	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 73.4¢	$129.23	$124.95	-$4.28
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 71¢	$355	$357.5	+$2.5	4% 2-55 (57)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 44.3¢	$140.97	$98.52	-$42.46	41% 490-712 (1202)
└ Ryukyu Golden Kings leg	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 44.3¢	$112.61	$71.16	-$41.45
└ Tokyo Sunrockers leg	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 73.6¢	$28.37	$27.36	-$1.01
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 29¢	$69.83	$67.42	-$2.41	32% 489-1029 (1518)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 44¢	$105.6	$67.2	-$38.4	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 29¢	$63.51	$61.32	-$2.19	37% 88-149 (237)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 29¢	$15.08	$14.82	-$0.26	32% 496-1046 (1542)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 35¢	$6.95	$5.56	-$1.39	33% 503-1013 (1516)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 42.3¢	$47.35	$3.41	-$5.64	52% 661-616 (1277)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$639.27

Value

$450.27

PnL

-$189

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

Ryukyu Golden Kings$510.0443.9¢-$184.72

Tokyo Sunrockers$129.2373.4¢-$4.28

TheComboConnoisseur

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$355

Value

$357.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

2-55 (57)

sentrioARB<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$140.97

Value

$98.52

PnL

-$42.46

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

Both legs:

Ryukyu Golden Kings$112.6144.3¢-$41.45

Tokyo Sunrockers$28.3773.6¢-$1.01

LimousinCTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$69.83

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$2.41

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

38791873984189CTR

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$105.6

Value

$67.2

PnL

-$38.4

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$63.51

Value

$61.32

PnL

-$2.19

Record

37%

88-149 (237)

VenusianCTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$15.08

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$0.26

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$6.95

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$1.39

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$47.35

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$5.64

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

Research grade

AvoidTokyo Sunrockers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tokyo Sunrockers

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Tokyo Sunrockers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyukyu Golden Kings 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRyukyu Golden Kings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ryukyu Golden Kings 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tokyo Sunrockers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.