Nagasaki Velca vs. Sendai 89ers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sendai 89ers (80%) · Sendai 89ers at 71¢ · $635 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Sendai 89ers
5
Sendai 89ers 80%
$635.41
$25.47
68.7¢ → 70.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSendai 89ers at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Sendai 89ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Sendai 89ersavg 69¢ | $242.18 | $243.91 | +$1.73 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Nagasaki Velcaavg 31.3¢ | $176.31 | $193.78 | +$17.48 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 68¢ | $71.55 | $74.18 | +$2.63 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 68¢ | $68.35 | $70.87 | +$2.52 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 69¢ | $51.55 | $52.67 | +$1.12 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$242.18
Value
$243.91
PnL
+$1.73
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$176.31
Value
$193.78
PnL
+$17.48
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$71.55
Value
$74.18
PnL
+$2.63
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$68.35
Value
$70.87
PnL
+$2.52
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$51.55
Value
$52.67
PnL
+$1.12
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.