Levanga Hokkaido vs. SAN-EN NeoPhoenix
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SAN-EN NeoPhoenix (40%) · SAN-EN NeoPhoenix at 91¢ · $664 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix
5
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix 40%
1 arb excluded
$663.96
-$131.46
83.1¢ → 90.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSAN-EN NeoPhoenix at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 83.3¢ | $550.38 | $478 | -$72.38 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 88¢ | $87.44 | $93.85 | +$6.4 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
| └ Levanga Hokkaido leg | Levanga Hokkaidoavg 20.5¢ | $25.23 | $54.25 | +$29.02 | |
| └ SAN-EN NeoPhoenix leg | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 88¢ | $62.22 | $39.59 | -$22.62 | |
38 38791873984189<$100 | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 80¢ | $29 | $40.4 | +$11.4 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Levanga Hokkaidoavg 43¢ | $23.65 | $24.2 | +$0.55 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Levanga Hokkaidoavg 45.7¢ | $86.36 | $15.12 | -$71.24 | 36% 113-199 (312) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Levanga Hokkaidoavg 46¢ | $17.01 | $12.39 | +$0.21 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
Invested
$550.38
Value
$478
PnL
-$72.38
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$87.44
Value
$93.85
PnL
+$6.4
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Both legs:
Invested
$29
Value
$40.4
PnL
+$11.4
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$24.2
PnL
+$0.55
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$86.36
Value
$15.12
PnL
-$71.24
Record
36%
113-199 (312)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.01
Value
$12.39
PnL
+$0.21
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.