Levanga Hokkaido vs. Saga Ballooners

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Levanga Hokkaido (17%) · Levanga Hokkaido at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Levanga Hokkaido99¢Saga Ballooners1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Levanga Hokkaido

Consensus Traders

Levanga Hokkaido 17%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$104.3

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 98.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidLevanga Hokkaido at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levanga Hokkaido

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Levanga Hokkaido99%

Saga Ballooners2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levanga Hokkaido2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,385

Combined PnL-$45.1

Saga Ballooners10 traders

Total Value$354.85

Total Shares5,029

Combined PnL-$59.2

Levanga Hokkaido — 17%Saga Ballooners — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Levanga Hokkaido. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaga Ballooners 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Saga Ballooners 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 98.4¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$45.69	47% 1159-1312 (2471)
NO NotJumpCTR	Saga Balloonersavg 50¢	$525	$276.88	+$0.38	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Saga Balloonersavg 2.8¢	$103.25	$55.39	-$47.85	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
SM smithagent<$100	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 97¢	$37.83	$38.42	+$0.59	46% 844-988 (1832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 3¢	$7.05	$7.52	+$0.47	14% 98-587 (685)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 7¢	$8.76	$4	-$4.76	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 7¢	$7	$3.2	-$3.8	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 1.7¢	$1.89	$1.69	-$0.2	48% 2449-2682 (5131)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 3¢	$1.56	$1.66	+$0.1	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 7¢	$3.5	$1.6	-$1.9	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 7¢	$3.49	$1.6	-$1.89	56% 57-44 (101)
dips.CTR<$100	Saga Balloonersavg 1.2¢	$1.04	$1.3	+$0.26	48% 1255-1336 (2591)

SnakeBall

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$3,353.12

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$45.69

Record

47%

1159-1312 (2471)

NotJumpCTR

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$525

Value

$276.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

FlaznorpCTR

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$103.25

Value

$55.39

PnL

-$47.85

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

smithagent<$100

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$37.83

Value

$38.42

PnL

+$0.59

Record

46%

844-988 (1832)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.47

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

VenusianCTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$8.76

Value

PnL

-$4.76

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

LimousinCTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$3.8

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.9

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$3.49

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.89

Record

56%

57-44 (101)

dips.CTR<$100

Saga Ballooners

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

1255-1336 (2591)

Research grade

AvoidLevanga Hokkaido at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Levanga Hokkaido

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Levanga Hokkaido. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaga Ballooners 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Saga Ballooners 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levanga Hokkaido wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.