Kyoto Hannaryz vs. Levanga Hokkaido

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Levanga Hokkaido (50%) · Levanga Hokkaido at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Kyoto Hannaryz44¢Levanga Hokkaido56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Levanga Hokkaido

Consensus Traders

Levanga Hokkaido 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$40.61

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 56.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLevanga Hokkaido at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levanga Hokkaido

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kyoto Hannaryz44%

Levanga Hokkaido56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levanga Hokkaido4 traders

Total Value$711.87

Total Shares1,298

Combined PnL+$52.1

Kyoto Hannaryz4 traders

Total Value$123.55

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$11.49

Levanga Hokkaido — 50%Kyoto Hannaryz — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 48.5¢	$1.0K	$993.64	-$9.3	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
└ Kyoto Hannaryz leg	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 48.5¢	$757.24	$733.99	-$23.25
└ Levanga Hokkaido leg	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 50.2¢	$245.71	$259.66	+$13.95
OM omnibus-076daa	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 45.2¢	$421.57	$516.88	+$78.93	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
VeryLucky888	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 61.2¢	$179.68	$139.94	-$22.1	58% 53685-38217 (91902)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 58.5¢	$79.46	$65.09	-$14.37	50% 49196-48732 (97928)
tradecraft<$100	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 60.1¢	$48.3	$42.62	-$5.67	51% 6908-6567 (13475)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 35.5¢	$21.3	$28.2	+$6.9	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 56¢	$28.98	$23.79	-$4.02	51% 28741-28115 (56856)
BI biying88888<$100	Levanga Hokkaidoavg 61.2¢	$11.48	$12.42	+$0.95	46% 335-399 (734)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 48.2¢	$6.94	$6.48	+$0	49% 302-312 (614)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$1,002.94

Value

$993.64

PnL

-$9.3

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

Both legs:

Kyoto Hannaryz$757.2448.5¢-$23.25

Levanga Hokkaido$245.7150.2¢+$13.95

omnibus-076daa

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$421.57

Value

$516.88

PnL

+$78.93

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

VeryLucky888

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$179.68

Value

$139.94

PnL

-$22.1

Record

58%

53685-38217 (91902)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$79.46

Value

$65.09

PnL

-$14.37

Record

50%

49196-48732 (97928)

tradecraft<$100

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$48.3

Value

$42.62

PnL

-$5.67

Record

51%

6908-6567 (13475)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$21.3

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$6.9

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$28.98

Value

$23.79

PnL

-$4.02

Record

51%

28741-28115 (56856)

biying88888<$100

Levanga Hokkaido

Invested

$11.48

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$0.95

Record

46%

335-399 (734)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$6.94

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

302-312 (614)

Research grade

AvoidLevanga Hokkaido at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Levanga Hokkaido

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levanga Hokkaido wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.