Ibaraki Robots vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ibaraki Robots (100%) · Ibaraki Robots at 67¢ · $751 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Ibaraki Robots
5
Ibaraki Robots 100%
$750.65
$29.1
63.9¢ → 66.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidIbaraki Robots at 67%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Ibaraki Robots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Ibaraki Robotsavg 63.2¢ | $423.19 | $445.28 | +$22.09 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
SN SnakeBall | Ibaraki Robotsavg 65¢ | $131.86 | $134.9 | +$3.04 | 50% 48656-48220 (96876) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ibaraki Robotsavg 65.5¢ | $139.96 | $129.12 | +$2.16 | 59% 52520-37212 (89732) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Ibaraki Robotsavg 64¢ | $36.62 | $38.06 | +$1.43 | 50% 27997-27469 (55466) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Ibaraki Robotsavg 49¢ | $2.93 | $3.3 | +$0.38 | 48% 2283-2446 (4729) |
Invested
$423.19
Value
$445.28
PnL
+$22.09
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$131.86
Value
$134.9
PnL
+$3.04
Record
50%
48656-48220 (96876)
VeryLucky888Invested
$139.96
Value
$129.12
PnL
+$2.16
Record
59%
52520-37212 (89732)
Invested
$36.62
Value
$38.06
PnL
+$1.43
Record
50%
27997-27469 (55466)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
2283-2446 (4729)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.