Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hiroshima Dragonflies, while the market favors Sendai 89ers (97%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Sendai 89ers
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroshima Dragonflies (60%) · Hiroshima Dragonflies at 3.0¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Hiroshima Dragonflies
5
Hiroshima Dragonflies 60%
$589.56
$53.51
20.5¢ → 3¢
-85% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHiroshima Dragonflies at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Sendai 89ers 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Hiroshima Dragonflies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 18.8¢ | $379.46 | $419.34 | +$39.88 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 55.9¢ | $83.95 | $59.37 | -$4.67 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 65¢ | $46.17 | $54.69 | +$8.52 | 28% 151-392 (543) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 64.8¢ | $28.07 | $36.6 | +$8.53 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 14¢ | $18.31 | $19.55 | +$1.24 | 46% 109-130 (239) |
Invested
$379.46
Value
$419.34
PnL
+$39.88
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$83.95
Value
$59.37
PnL
-$4.67
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$46.17
Value
$54.69
PnL
+$8.52
Record
28%
151-392 (543)
Invested
$28.07
Value
$36.6
PnL
+$8.53
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$18.31
Value
$19.55
PnL
+$1.24
Record
46%
109-130 (239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.