Diamond Dolphins vs. Tokyo Sunrockers

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Diamond Dolphins (11%) · Diamond Dolphins at 74¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 22

Diamond Dolphins74¢Tokyo Sunrockers26¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Diamond Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Diamond Dolphins 11%

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$307.48

Research grade

AvoidDiamond Dolphins at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Diamond Dolphins

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Diamond Dolphins74%

Tokyo Sunrockers27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Diamond Dolphins1 trader

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares12,560

Combined PnL+$8.62

Tokyo Sunrockers8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares12,130

Combined PnL+$298.86

Diamond Dolphins — 11%Tokyo Sunrockers — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Diamond Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTokyo Sunrockers 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTokyo Sunrockers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tokyo Sunrockers 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Diamond Dolphinsavg 73.4¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$8.62	50% 11-11 (22)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 26.2¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$214.76	59% 527-359 (886)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 28.1¢	$763.41	$786.98	+$23.57	47% 1160-1322 (2482)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 25¢	$217.5	$252.3	+$34.8	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
VeryLucky888CTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 27.7¢	$122.47	$95.44	+$4.73	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 25¢	$199.88	$84.1	+$18.22	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 30¢	$36	$34.8	-$1.2	43% 239-315 (554)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 25¢	$24.8	$28.77	+$3.97	41% 1159-1644 (2803)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 26¢	$4.34	$4.34	+$0	37% 1293-2176 (3469)

stepanka1234

Diamond Dolphins

Invested

$9,222.95

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$8.62

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$2,019.77

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$214.76

Record

59%

527-359 (886)

SnakeBallCTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$763.41

Value

$786.98

PnL

+$23.57

Record

47%

1160-1322 (2482)

FlaznorpCTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$217.5

Value

$252.3

PnL

+$34.8

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

VeryLucky888CTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$122.47

Value

$95.44

PnL

+$4.73

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

38791873984189CTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$199.88

Value

$84.1

PnL

+$18.22

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$36

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

43%

239-315 (554)

sentrioCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$24.8

Value

$28.77

PnL

+$3.97

Record

41%

1159-1644 (2803)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

Research grade

AvoidDiamond Dolphins at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Diamond Dolphins

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Diamond Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTokyo Sunrockers 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTokyo Sunrockers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tokyo Sunrockers 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Diamond Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.