Chiba Jets vs. Osaka Evessa
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Chiba Jets (71%) · Chiba Jets at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Chiba Jets
7
Chiba Jets 71%
$4.3K
$370.87
77.3¢ → 92.5¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidChiba Jets at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Chiba Jetsavg 80.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$269.85 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
 alpheclabs2 | Chiba Jetsavg 72.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$48.38 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
38 38791873984189 | Chiba Jetsavg 75.8¢ | $249.25 | $246.75 | -$2.5 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Chiba Jetsavg 79¢ | $114.72 | $108.91 | -$5.81 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Chiba Jetsavg 91¢ | $36.34 | $42.5 | +$6.15 | 14% 93-563 (656) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Osaka Evessaavg 9¢ | $7.08 | $39.33 | +$32.25 | 24% 205-634 (839) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Osaka Evessaavg 9¢ | $4.95 | $27.5 | +$22.55 | 24% 200-640 (840) |
Invested
$2,191.91
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$269.85
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
alpheclabs2Invested
$1,302.48
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$48.38
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$249.25
Value
$246.75
PnL
-$2.5
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
Invested
$114.72
Value
$108.91
PnL
-$5.81
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$36.34
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$6.15
Record
14%
93-563 (656)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$39.33
PnL
+$32.25
Record
24%
205-634 (839)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$22.55
Record
24%
200-640 (840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.