Brave Thunders vs. Shimane Susanoo Magic

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic (43%) · Shimane Susanoo Magic at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Brave Thunders<1¢Shimane Susanoo Magic>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Consensus Traders

Shimane Susanoo Magic 43%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$21.92

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Brave Thunders0%

Shimane Susanoo Magic100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shimane Susanoo Magic3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL+$56.44

Brave Thunders4 traders

Total Value$27.59

Total Shares1,153

Combined PnL-$34.52

Shimane Susanoo Magic — 43%Brave Thunders — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 99.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.75	43% 24-32 (56)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 64.7¢	$98.68	$47.41	+$47.44	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Brave Thundersavg 0.8¢	$7.91	$21.93	+$14.02	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Brave Thundersavg 38.8¢	$53.8	$5.47	-$43.34	52% 441-414 (855)
SE sentrio<$100	Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.65	+$1.25	37% 339-567 (906)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Brave Thundersavg 38¢	$3.8	$0.13	-$3.67	30% 373-861 (1234)
ST stepanka1234CTR<$100	Brave Thundersavg 32¢	$1.6	$0.07	-$1.54	— 3-6 (9)

pagliacci4

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$1,061.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.75

Record

43%

24-32 (56)

Flaznorp<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$98.68

Value

$47.41

PnL

+$47.44

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Brave Thunders

Invested

$7.91

Value

$21.93

PnL

+$14.02

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Brave Thunders

Invested

$53.8

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$43.34

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

sentrio<$100

Shimane Susanoo Magic

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$1.25

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

VenusianCTR<$100

Brave Thunders

Invested

$3.8

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.67

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

stepanka1234CTR<$100

Brave Thunders

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.54

Record

—

3-6 (9)

Research grade

AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Shimane Susanoo Magic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shimane Susanoo Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.