Alvark Tokyo vs. Nagasaki Velca

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alvark Tokyo (57%) · Alvark Tokyo at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Alvark Tokyo80¢Nagasaki Velca20¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alvark Tokyo

Consensus Traders

Alvark Tokyo 57%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$4.66

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 80¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlvark Tokyo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alvark Tokyo

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alvark Tokyo80%

Nagasaki Velca20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alvark Tokyo4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL-$21.88

Nagasaki Velca3 traders

Total Value$414

Total Shares2,070

Combined PnL+$26.54

Alvark Tokyo — 57%Nagasaki Velca — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Alvark Tokyo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlvark Tokyo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alvark Tokyo 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Alvark Tokyoavg 82¢	$586.07	$571.78	-$14.29	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
VeryLucky888	Alvark Tokyoavg 80.7¢	$242	$240	-$2	51% 300-292 (592)
VE VenusianCTR	Nagasaki Velcaavg 19.6¢	$177.3	$180.49	+$3.19	28% 279-730 (1009)
38 38791873984189	Alvark Tokyoavg 81.1¢	$176.8	$174.4	-$2.4	48% 949-1019 (1968)
LI LimousinCTR	Nagasaki Velcaavg 18¢	$150.77	$167.52	+$16.75	28% 285-731 (1016)
SE sentrio	Alvark Tokyoavg 82¢	$130.5	$127.32	-$3.18	34% 233-457 (690)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 18¢	$59.39	$65.99	+$6.6	48% 190-206 (396)

Flaznorp

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$586.07

Value

$571.78

PnL

-$14.29

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

VeryLucky888

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$242

Value

$240

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

VenusianCTR

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$177.3

Value

$180.49

PnL

+$3.19

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

38791873984189

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$176.8

Value

$174.4

PnL

-$2.4

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

LimousinCTR

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$150.77

Value

$167.52

PnL

+$16.75

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

sentrio

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$130.5

Value

$127.32

PnL

-$3.18

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$59.39

Value

$65.99

PnL

+$6.6

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Research grade

AvoidAlvark Tokyo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alvark Tokyo

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Alvark Tokyo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlvark Tokyo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alvark Tokyo 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alvark Tokyo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.