Alvark Tokyo vs. Hiroshima Dragonflies

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alvark Tokyo (78%) · Alvark Tokyo at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Alvark Tokyo71¢Hiroshima Dragonflies29¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alvark Tokyo

Consensus Traders

Alvark Tokyo 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$132.19

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 70.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlvark Tokyo at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alvark Tokyo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alvark Tokyo71%

Hiroshima Dragonflies30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alvark Tokyo7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,439

Combined PnL+$136.56

Hiroshima Dragonflies2 traders

Total Value$102.41

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$4.37

Alvark Tokyo — 78%Hiroshima Dragonflies — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Alvark Tokyo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlvark Tokyo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlvark Tokyo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alvark Tokyo 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Alvark Tokyoavg 66.9¢	$634.22	$668.34	+$34.12	62% 1129-683 (1812)
poshposhARB<$100	Alvark Tokyoavg 52.9¢	$443.02	$488	+$44.98	48% 1068-1142 (2210)
└ Alvark Tokyo leg	Alvark Tokyoavg 52.9¢	$253.16	$315.73	+$62.58
└ Hiroshima Dragonflies leg	Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 37.5¢	$189.86	$172.27	-$17.6
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Alvark Tokyoavg 47.7¢	$161.61	$186.91	+$53.9	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
└ Alvark Tokyo leg	Alvark Tokyoavg 47.7¢	$88.21	$130.34	+$51.51
└ Hiroshima Dragonflies leg	Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 28.3¢	$54.19	$56.57	+$2.38
OM omnibus-076daa	Alvark Tokyoavg 51.5¢	$106.48	$145.7	+$39.22	46% 472-558 (1030)
NA NatoAlfista	Alvark Tokyoavg 56.5¢	$86.31	$107.69	+$21.38	41% 162-233 (395)
CI cigarettesCTR	Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 36.1¢	$101.53	$95.71	-$5.82	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
VeryLucky888	Alvark Tokyoavg 69.7¢	$498.79	$37.9	+$36.05	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Alvark Tokyoavg 62¢	$20	$21.28	+$1.29	19% 44-191 (235)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Alvark Tokyoavg 63¢	$20	$20.95	+$0.95	52% 37-34 (71)
SE sentrio<$100	Alvark Tokyoavg 46¢	$6.53	$10.07	+$3.55	42% 970-1328 (2298)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 28¢	$5.25	$6.7	+$1.45	48% 2022-2162 (4184)

vibing123

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$634.22

Value

$668.34

PnL

+$34.12

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

poshposhARB<$100

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$443.02

Value

$488

PnL

+$44.98

Record

48%

1068-1142 (2210)

Both legs:

Alvark Tokyo$253.1652.9¢+$62.58

Hiroshima Dragonflies$189.8637.5¢-$17.6

FlaznorpARB<$100

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$161.61

Value

$186.91

PnL

+$53.9

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

Both legs:

Alvark Tokyo$88.2147.7¢+$51.51

Hiroshima Dragonflies$54.1928.3¢+$2.38

omnibus-076daa

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$106.48

Value

$145.7

PnL

+$39.22

Record

46%

472-558 (1030)

NatoAlfista

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$86.31

Value

$107.69

PnL

+$21.38

Record

41%

162-233 (395)

cigarettesCTR

Hiroshima Dragonflies

Invested

$101.53

Value

$95.71

PnL

-$5.82

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

VeryLucky888

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$498.79

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$36.05

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

Notradecopy<$100

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$20

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$1.29

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$20

Value

$20.95

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

sentrio<$100

Alvark Tokyo

Invested

$6.53

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$3.55

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hiroshima Dragonflies

Invested

$5.25

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$1.45

Record

48%

2022-2162 (4184)

Research grade

AvoidAlvark Tokyo at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alvark Tokyo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Alvark Tokyo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlvark Tokyo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlvark Tokyo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alvark Tokyo 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alvark Tokyo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.