Akita Northern Happinets vs. Osaka Evessa

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Akita Northern Happinets (25%) · Akita Northern Happinets at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Akita Northern Happinets87¢Osaka Evessa13¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Akita Northern Happinets

Consensus Traders

Akita Northern Happinets 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$20.97

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAkita Northern Happinets at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akita Northern Happinets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Akita Northern Happinets87%

Osaka Evessa14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Osaka Evessa6 traders

Total Value$546.43

Total Shares798

Combined PnL+$2.71

Akita Northern Happinets2 traders

Total Value$405.38

Total Shares498

Combined PnL-$23.68

Osaka Evessa — 75%Akita Northern Happinets — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Osaka Evessaavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
SU suntori	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 86.5¢	$380.92	$376.56	-$4.36	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 78.7¢	$69.56	$80.64	+$11.08	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
└ Akita Northern Happinets leg	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 78.7¢	$53.88	$58.54	+$4.66
└ Osaka Evessa leg	Osaka Evessaavg 10.3¢	$15.68	$22.1	+$6.41
VeryLucky888	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 87¢	$137.14	$28.82	-$19.33	53% 1793-1578 (3371)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Osaka Evessaavg 8¢	$10.32	$9.03	-$1.29	46% 844-988 (1832)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Osaka Evessaavg 5.7¢	$2.81	$4.17	+$1.36	45% 935-1121 (2056)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Osaka Evessaavg 6¢	$1.8	$3.15	+$1.35	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Osaka Evessaavg 4¢	$1.42	$3.01	+$1.59	37% 473-802 (1275)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Osaka Evessaavg 8¢	$2.37	$2.07	-$0.3	48% 2449-2682 (5131)

NotJumpCTR

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

suntori

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$380.92

Value

$376.56

PnL

-$4.36

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$69.56

Value

$80.64

PnL

+$11.08

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

Both legs:

Akita Northern Happinets$53.8878.7¢+$4.66

Osaka Evessa$15.6810.3¢+$6.41

VeryLucky888

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$137.14

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$19.33

Record

53%

1793-1578 (3371)

smithagentCTR<$100

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$1.29

Record

46%

844-988 (1832)

lryyyCTR<$100

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$2.81

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$1.36

Record

45%

935-1121 (2056)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$1.8

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$1.35

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$1.42

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$1.59

Record

37%

473-802 (1275)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Osaka Evessa

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

Research grade

AvoidAkita Northern Happinets at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Akita Northern Happinets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akita Northern Happinets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.