Akita Northern Happinets vs. Ibaraki Robots

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Akita Northern Happinets (90%) · Akita Northern Happinets at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Akita Northern Happinets57¢Ibaraki Robots43¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Akita Northern Happinets

Consensus Traders

Akita Northern Happinets 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$265.75

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 57.5¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidAkita Northern Happinets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akita Northern Happinets

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Akita Northern Happinets57%

Ibaraki Robots43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akita Northern Happinets9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,061

Combined PnL+$264.75

Ibaraki Robots1 trader

Total Value$47

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$1

Akita Northern Happinets — 90%Ibaraki Robots — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Akita Northern Happinets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAkita Northern Happinets 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Akita Northern Happinets 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 53.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$95.28	63% 1092-650 (1742)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 48¢	$953.58	$947.48	-$6.1	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
└ Ibaraki Robots leg	Ibaraki Robotsavg 48¢	$739.15	$639.09	-$100.06
└ Akita Northern Happinets leg	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 40.7¢	$214.43	$308.39	+$93.96
MA MadridTime	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 39.9¢	$233.37	$307.25	+$73.89	31% 372-838 (1210)
LI Limousin	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 35.4¢	$83.12	$134.87	+$51.76	30% 368-861 (1229)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 64.7¢	$433.14	$119.72	+$4.25	52% 440-413 (853)
└ Akita Northern Happinets leg	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 37.7¢	$48.75	$68.52	+$40.28
└ Ibaraki Robots leg	Ibaraki Robotsavg 64.7¢	$70.44	$51.2	-$36.02
LI LightParadox<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 28.6¢	$41.15	$69.85	+$28.71	30% 367-860 (1227)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 58¢	$61.05	$61.58	+$0.53	45% 262-314 (576)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Ibaraki Robotsavg 46¢	$46	$47	+$1	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 25¢	$10.21	$21.64	+$11.43	38% 136-220 (356)
VE Venusian<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 41.4¢	$11.32	$13.32	+$2	30% 371-860 (1231)
tradecraft<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 58¢	$8.02	$8.08	+$0.07	19% 145-608 (753)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 42¢	$4.17	$5.26	+$1.09	59% 434-296 (730)

vibing123

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$1,047.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$95.28

Record

63%

1092-650 (1742)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$953.58

Value

$947.48

PnL

-$6.1

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

Both legs:

Ibaraki Robots$739.1548¢-$100.06

Akita Northern Happinets$214.4340.7¢+$93.96

MadridTime

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$233.37

Value

$307.25

PnL

+$73.89

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

Limousin

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$83.12

Value

$134.87

PnL

+$51.76

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$433.14

Value

$119.72

PnL

+$4.25

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

Both legs:

Akita Northern Happinets$48.7537.7¢+$40.28

Ibaraki Robots$70.4464.7¢-$36.02

LightParadox<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$41.15

Value

$69.85

PnL

+$28.71

Record

30%

367-860 (1227)

SnakeBall<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$61.05

Value

$61.58

PnL

+$0.53

Record

45%

262-314 (576)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Ibaraki Robots

Invested

$46

Value

$47

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

LuckyLoo<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$10.21

Value

$21.64

PnL

+$11.43

Record

38%

136-220 (356)

Venusian<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$11.32

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$2

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

tradecraft<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$8.02

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$0.07

Record

19%

145-608 (753)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$4.17

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$1.09

Record

59%

434-296 (730)

Research grade

AvoidAkita Northern Happinets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Akita Northern Happinets

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Akita Northern Happinets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAkita Northern Happinets 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Akita Northern Happinets 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akita Northern Happinets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.