Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Maccabi Tel-Aviv (10%) · Maccabi Tel-Aviv at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 21

Maccabi Tel-Aviv65¢Hapoel Jerusalem35¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

Consensus Traders

Maccabi Tel-Aviv 10%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$62.14

Research grade

AvoidMaccabi Tel-Aviv at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maccabi Tel-Aviv65%

Hapoel Jerusalem36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maccabi Tel-Aviv1 trader

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,133

Combined PnL+$87.47

Hapoel Jerusalem9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,796

Combined PnL-$149.61

Maccabi Tel-Aviv — 10%Hapoel Jerusalem — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Maccabi Tel-Aviv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMaccabi Tel-Aviv 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperMaccabi Tel-Aviv 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHapoel Jerusalem 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHapoel Jerusalem 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hapoel Jerusalem 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Maccabi Tel-Avivavg 64.8¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$87.47	— 9-8 (17)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 35¢	$1,000	$942.86	-$57.14	53% 40-35 (75)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 35¢	$1,000	$942.85	-$57.14	19% 46-193 (239)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 37.2¢	$144.94	$125.27	-$15.33	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 36¢	$110.15	$100.97	-$9.18	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 50¢	$450	$66	-$8	69% 132-60 (192)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 34¢	$34	$33	-$1	37% 960-1662 (2622)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 36¢	$24.26	$22.24	-$2.02	42% 995-1363 (2358)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 33¢	$13.82	$14.14	+$0.31	30% 335-776 (1111)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hapoel Jerusalemavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.65	-$0.1	36% 948-1669 (2617)

stepanka1234

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

Invested

$4,620.16

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$87.47

Record

—

9-8 (17)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$1,000

Value

$942.86

PnL

-$57.14

Record

53%

40-35 (75)

NotradecopyCTR

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$1,000

Value

$942.85

PnL

-$57.14

Record

19%

46-193 (239)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$144.94

Value

$125.27

PnL

-$15.33

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

FlaznorpCTR

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$110.15

Value

$100.97

PnL

-$9.18

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$450

Value

$66

PnL

-$8

Record

69%

132-60 (192)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$34

Value

$33

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

sentrioCTR<$100

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$24.26

Value

$22.24

PnL

-$2.02

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$13.82

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$0.31

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hapoel Jerusalem

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Research grade

AvoidMaccabi Tel-Aviv at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Maccabi Tel-Aviv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMaccabi Tel-Aviv 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperMaccabi Tel-Aviv 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHapoel Jerusalem 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHapoel Jerusalem 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hapoel Jerusalem 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maccabi Tel-Aviv wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.