Skyliners Frankfurt vs. Maxima Roma

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Maxima Roma (60%) · Maxima Roma at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 19

Skyliners Frankfurt<1¢Maxima Roma>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maxima Roma

Consensus Traders

Maxima Roma 60%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaxima Roma at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxima Roma

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Skyliners Frankfurt0%

Maxima Roma100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxima Roma6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,627

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Skyliners Frankfurt4 traders

Total Value$526.47

Total Shares830

Combined PnL-$49.89

Maxima Roma — 60%Skyliners Frankfurt — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Maxima Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMaxima Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxima Roma 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Maxima Roma 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Maxima Romaavg 72.9¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$695.7	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
SL SlickRick123	Maxima Romaavg 50.5¢	$901.36	$1.8K	+$879.28	29% 206-510 (716)
NO NotJumpCTR	Skyliners Frankfurtavg 50¢	$525	$526.05	+$1.05	55% 499-416 (915)
CI cigarettes<$100	Maxima Romaavg 95.6¢	$96.52	$98.43	+$1.91	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
tradecraft<$100	Maxima Romaavg 65¢	$64.06	$85.52	+$21.46	22% 185-649 (834)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Maxima Romaavg 56.4¢	$36.68	$42.63	+$5.95	83% 415-84 (499)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Maxima Romaavg 99.8¢	$9.99	$9.98	-$0.01	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Skyliners Frankfurtavg 39¢	$33.97	$0.26	-$33.71	34% 592-1164 (1756)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Skyliners Frankfurtavg 4.9¢	$9.9	$0.1	-$9.8	43% 97-126 (223)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Skyliners Frankfurtavg 41¢	$7.49	$0.05	-$7.44	41% 293-414 (707)

Flaznorp

Maxima Roma

Invested

$1,903.92

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$695.7

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

SlickRick123

Maxima Roma

Invested

$901.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$879.28

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

NotJumpCTR

Skyliners Frankfurt

Invested

$525

Value

$526.05

PnL

+$1.05

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

cigarettes<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$96.52

Value

$98.43

PnL

+$1.91

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

tradecraft<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$64.06

Value

$85.52

PnL

+$21.46

Record

22%

185-649 (834)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$36.68

Value

$42.63

PnL

+$5.95

Record

83%

415-84 (499)

ferdinand2<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Skyliners Frankfurt

Invested

$33.97

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$33.71

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Skyliners Frankfurt

Invested

$9.9

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$9.8

Record

43%

97-126 (223)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Skyliners Frankfurt

Invested

$7.49

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.44

Record

41%

293-414 (707)

Research grade

AvoidMaxima Roma at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Maxima Roma

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Maxima Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMaxima Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxima Roma 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Maxima Roma 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxima Roma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.