Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana, while the market favors Rostock Seawolves (61%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Rostock Seawolves vs. KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (100%) · KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 39¢ · $479 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana
5
KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana 100%
$479.14
$118.76
37.1¢ → 39¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Rostock Seawolves 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 37¢ | $161.17 | $217.8 | +$56.63 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
VE VenusianCTR | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 37¢ | $99.91 | $135.01 | +$35.1 | 24% 204-633 (837) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 37.5¢ | $75 | $100 | +$25 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 37¢ | $20.5 | $21.33 | +$0.83 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljanaavg 38¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 24% 200-618 (818) |
Invested
$161.17
Value
$217.8
PnL
+$56.63
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$99.91
Value
$135.01
PnL
+$35.1
Record
24%
204-633 (837)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$75
Value
$100
PnL
+$25
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$21.33
PnL
+$0.83
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
24%
200-618 (818)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.