Le Mans Sarthe Basket vs. CB San Pablo Burgos
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Le Mans Sarthe Basket (60%) · Le Mans Sarthe Basket at 96¢ · $687 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Le Mans Sarthe Basket
5
Le Mans Sarthe Basket 60%
$687.34
-$29.65
84.3¢ → 96¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLe Mans Sarthe Basket at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Le Mans Sarthe Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 86.6¢ | $478.57 | $422.68 | -$55.89 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
 VeryLucky888 | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 81¢ | $308.5 | $253.51 | +$38.4 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 80¢ | $6.35 | $7.62 | +$1.27 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | CB San Pablo Burgosavg 14¢ | $12.87 | $2.76 | -$10.11 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | CB San Pablo Burgosavg 16¢ | $4.09 | $0.77 | -$3.32 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
Invested
$478.57
Value
$422.68
PnL
-$55.89
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
VeryLucky888Invested
$308.5
Value
$253.51
PnL
+$38.4
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$7.62
PnL
+$1.27
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$2.76
PnL
-$10.11
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$3.32
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.