Basquet Manresa vs. KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Basquet Manresa (80%) · Basquet Manresa at 76¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Basquet Manresa
5
Basquet Manresa 80%
$85.1
-$0.92
Research grade
AvoidBasquet Manresa at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Basquet Manresa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Basquet Manresaavg 78¢ | $35.1 | $34.65 | -$0.45 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Basquet Manresaavg 78¢ | $24.95 | $24.88 | -$0.06 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Basquet Manresaavg 79¢ | $15.97 | $15.56 | -$0.4 | 16% 106-570 (676) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Basquet Manresaavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $7.55 | -$0.15 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $2.45 | +$0.15 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$35.1
Value
$34.65
PnL
-$0.45
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$24.88
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$15.97
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$0.4
Record
16%
106-570 (676)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.55
PnL
-$0.15
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.