Balkan Botevgrad vs. PAOK BC

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PAOK BC (20%) · PAOK BC at 100¢ · $950 held · ends Nov 17

Balkan Botevgrad<1¢PAOK BC>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

PAOK BC

Consensus Traders

PAOK BC 20%

Total Value

$950.48

Combined PnL

-$22.25

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPAOK BC at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PAOK BC

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Balkan Botevgrad0%

PAOK BC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PAOK BC2 traders

Total Value$937.44

Total Shares938

Combined PnL+$71.59

Balkan Botevgrad8 traders

Total Value$13.04

Total Shares1,384

Combined PnL-$93.83

PAOK BC — 20%Balkan Botevgrad — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on PAOK BC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PAOK BC) and the top 1000 (9 on Balkan Botevgrad) disagree here.

ctrBalkan Botevgrad 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPAOK BC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Balkan Botevgrad 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	PAOK BCavg 91.9¢	$786.15	$837.85	+$51.7	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
VeryLucky888	PAOK BCavg 86¢	$402.08	$99.59	+$19.89	49% 235-240 (475)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 14¢	$76.15	$10.91	-$65.24	25% 218-645 (863)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 13¢	$10.29	$1.58	-$8.71	25% 216-657 (873)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 3.9¢	$5.16	$0.13	-$5.02	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 2.5¢	$6.56	$0.13	-$6.43	16% 112-570 (682)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 3¢	$3.88	$0.13	-$3.75	47% 77-88 (165)
dips.CTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 2¢	$2.67	$0.07	-$2.6	42% 200-281 (481)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 2¢	$1.99	$0.05	-$1.94	24% 99-314 (413)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 12¢	$0.18	$0.03	-$0.15	31% 170-384 (554)

Flaznorp

PAOK BC

Invested

$786.15

Value

$837.85

PnL

+$51.7

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

VeryLucky888

PAOK BC

Invested

$402.08

Value

$99.59

PnL

+$19.89

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$76.15

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$65.24

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

VenusianCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$10.29

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$8.71

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$5.02

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$6.56

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$6.43

Record

16%

112-570 (682)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$3.88

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$3.75

Record

47%

77-88 (165)

dips.CTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$2.67

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.6

Record

42%

200-281 (481)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$1.99

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.94

Record

24%

99-314 (413)

sentrioCTR<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.15

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Research grade

AvoidPAOK BC at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PAOK BC

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on PAOK BC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on PAOK BC) and the top 1000 (9 on Balkan Botevgrad) disagree here.

ctrBalkan Botevgrad 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPAOK BC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Balkan Botevgrad 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PAOK BC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.