Bahcesehir Koleji vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bahcesehir Koleji (29%) · Bahcesehir Koleji at 93¢ · $932 held · ends Nov 18

Bahcesehir Koleji93¢BC Lietkabelis Panevezys7¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bahcesehir Koleji

Consensus Traders

Bahcesehir Koleji 29%

Total Value

$932.42

Combined PnL

$25

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 93¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBahcesehir Koleji at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bahcesehir Koleji

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bahcesehir Koleji93%

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bahcesehir Koleji2 traders

Total Value$723.37

Total Shares778

Combined PnL+$9.56

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys5 traders

Total Value$208.56

Total Shares3,374

Combined PnL+$15.44

Bahcesehir Koleji — 29%BC Lietkabelis Panevezys — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 91.8¢	$697.6	$706.8	+$9.2	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 5.3¢	$68.62	$77.95	+$9.33	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$47.25	$43.31	-$3.94	30% 373-868 (1241)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$33.65	$39.26	+$5.61	30% 373-864 (1237)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$32.3	$37.68	+$5.38	31% 380-865 (1245)
SE sentrio<$100	Bahcesehir Kolejiavg 90¢	$16.21	$16.57	+$0.36	37% 341-573 (914)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 6¢	$11.3	$10.36	-$0.94	31% 379-844 (1223)

Flaznorp

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$697.6

Value

$706.8

PnL

+$9.2

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

cigarettesCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$68.62

Value

$77.95

PnL

+$9.33

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

LimousinCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$47.25

Value

$43.31

PnL

-$3.94

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$33.65

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$5.61

Record

30%

373-864 (1237)

VenusianCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$32.3

Value

$37.68

PnL

+$5.38

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

sentrio<$100

Bahcesehir Koleji

Invested

$16.21

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$0.36

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$11.3

Value

$10.36

PnL

-$0.94

Record

31%

379-844 (1223)

Research grade

AvoidBahcesehir Koleji at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bahcesehir Koleji

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bahcesehir Koleji wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.