Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Igokea, while the market favors SK Slavia Prague (61%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SK Slavia Prague vs. Igokea
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Igokea (100%) · Igokea at 40¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Igokea
5
Igokea 100%
$2.6K
$96.38
44.2¢ → 39.5¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidIgokea at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors SK Slavia Prague 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Igokea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Igokeaavg 45.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$70.44 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Igokeaavg 42¢ | $834.47 | $1.0K | +$178.81 | 28% 161-405 (566) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Igokeaavg 45.8¢ | $255.31 | $239.7 | -$15.61 | 53% 1811-1621 (3432) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Igokeaavg 44¢ | $54.18 | $52.95 | -$1.23 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Igokeaavg 34¢ | $9.69 | $14.54 | +$4.85 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
Invested
$1,386.63
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$70.44
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$834.47
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$178.81
Record
28%
161-405 (566)
Invested
$255.31
Value
$239.7
PnL
-$15.61
Record
53%
1811-1621 (3432)
Invested
$54.18
Value
$52.95
PnL
-$1.23
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$14.54
PnL
+$4.85
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.