Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pallacanestro Varese, while the market favors Peristeri (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Peristeri vs. Pallacanestro Varese
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pallacanestro Varese (75%) · Pallacanestro Varese at 49¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Pallacanestro Varese
4
Pallacanestro Varese 75%
$221.35
$15.78
40.1¢ → 48.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Peristeri 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pallacanestro Varese. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati | Peristeriavg 56¢ | $99.12 | $100.89 | +$1.77 | 9% 13-129 (142) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 44¢ | $51.24 | $56.46 | +$5.23 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 37.3¢ | $46.26 | $53.26 | +$7 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Pallacanestro Vareseavg 35.9¢ | $8.96 | $10.74 | +$1.78 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
Invested
$99.12
Value
$100.89
PnL
+$1.77
Record
9%
13-129 (142)
Invested
$51.24
Value
$56.46
PnL
+$5.23
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$46.26
Value
$53.26
PnL
+$7
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$10.74
PnL
+$1.78
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.