Juventus vs. Pardubice

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus (33%) · Juventus at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Juventus>99¢Pardubice<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Juventus

Consensus Traders

Juventus 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$233.74

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJuventus at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juventus

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juventus100%

Pardubice0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juventus4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,480

Combined PnL+$197.71

Pardubice8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,448

Combined PnL+$36.03

Juventus — 33%Pardubice — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Juventusavg 79¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$197.27	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Juventusavg 53.6¢	$710.55	$820.07	+$109.53	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
└ Juventus leg	Juventusavg 53.6¢	$386.53	$649.42	+$262.89
└ Pardubice leg	Pardubiceavg 19¢	$324.02	$170.66	-$153.36
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pardubiceavg 21.1¢	$971.48	$699.64	-$271.84	46% 1298-1511 (2809)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Pardubiceavg 17¢	$188.09	$553.22	+$365.12	48% 5181-5695 (10876)
MI mishipolisCTR	Pardubiceavg 29.2¢	$355.55	$297.63	-$36.07	50% 4716-4657 (9373)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Juventusavg 72.4¢	$169.13	$243.13	+$73.99	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
└ Pardubice leg	Pardubiceavg 14.9¢	$50.86	$153.28	+$102.42
└ Juventus leg	Juventusavg 72.4¢	$118.28	$89.85	-$28.43
poshposhARB<$100	Juventusavg 69.7¢	$184.62	$222	+$37.38	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
└ Juventus leg	Juventusavg 69.7¢	$118.35	$120.61	+$2.27
└ Pardubice leg	Pardubiceavg 18.9¢	$66.27	$101.39	+$35.12
ZX zxc368	Juventusavg 99.9¢	$219.58	$219.68	+$0.1	98% 13990-239 (14229)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Pardubiceavg 23.9¢	$71.18	$149	+$77.82	49% 236-250 (486)
NO NotJumpCTR	Pardubiceavg 27.6¢	$138	$50	-$88	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
US User7429<$100	Juventusavg 86.4¢	$45.21	$49.42	+$4.21	55% 8674-6972 (15646)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Pardubiceavg 31.6¢	$24.49	$25.96	+$1.47	59% 31360-22035 (53395)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Pardubiceavg 30.4¢	$11.49	$10.22	-$1.28	51% 11633-11054 (22687)
SM smithagent<$100	Juventusavg 86.6¢	$9.17	$5.3	-$3.88	48% 5287-5668 (10955)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Pardubiceavg 45.9¢	$36.19	$0.03	-$11.2	82% 6738-1455 (8193)

Flaznorp

Juventus

Invested

$2,783.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$197.27

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Juventus

Invested

$710.55

Value

$820.07

PnL

+$109.53

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

Both legs:

Juventus$386.5353.6¢+$262.89

Pardubice$324.0219¢-$153.36

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pardubice

Invested

$971.48

Value

$699.64

PnL

-$271.84

Record

46%

1298-1511 (2809)

SlickRick123CTR

Pardubice

Invested

$188.09

Value

$553.22

PnL

+$365.12

Record

48%

5181-5695 (10876)

mishipolisCTR

Pardubice

Invested

$355.55

Value

$297.63

PnL

-$36.07

Record

50%

4716-4657 (9373)

cigarettesARB<$100

Juventus

Invested

$169.13

Value

$243.13

PnL

+$73.99

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

Both legs:

Pardubice$50.8614.9¢+$102.42

Juventus$118.2872.4¢-$28.43

poshposhARB<$100

Juventus

Invested

$184.62

Value

$222

PnL

+$37.38

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

Both legs:

Juventus$118.3569.7¢+$2.27

Pardubice$66.2718.9¢+$35.12

zxc368

Juventus

Invested

$219.58

Value

$219.68

PnL

+$0.1

Record

98%

13990-239 (14229)

panpidaras1CTR

Pardubice

Invested

$71.18

Value

$149

PnL

+$77.82

Record

49%

236-250 (486)

NotJumpCTR

Pardubice

Invested

$138

Value

$50

PnL

-$88

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

User7429<$100

Juventus

Invested

$45.21

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$4.21

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Pardubice

Invested

$24.49

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$1.47

Record

59%

31360-22035 (53395)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Pardubice

Invested

$11.49

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

11633-11054 (22687)

smithagent<$100

Juventus

Invested

$9.17

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$3.88

Record

48%

5287-5668 (10955)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Pardubice

Invested

$36.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.2

Record

82%

6738-1455 (8193)

Research grade

AvoidJuventus at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Juventus

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juventus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.