Shenzhen Leopards vs. Shanxi Loongs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Shanxi Loongs (50%) · Shanxi Loongs at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Shenzhen Leopards16¢Shanxi Loongs84¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shanxi Loongs

Consensus Traders

Shanxi Loongs 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$11.51

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidShanxi Loongs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shanxi Loongs

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shenzhen Leopards16%

Shanxi Loongs85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shanxi Loongs5 traders

Total Value$935.55

Total Shares1,088

Combined PnL+$5.05

Shenzhen Leopards5 traders

Total Value$214.04

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL+$6.47

Shanxi Loongs — 50%Shenzhen Leopards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Shanxi Loongs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShenzhen Leopards 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpShanxi Loongs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShenzhen Leopards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedShanxi Loongs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Shanxi Loongs 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE KevinEZM427	Shanxi Loongsavg 85¢	$700	$708.24	+$8.24	84% 358-66 (424)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Shanxi Loongsavg 88¢	$131.81	$128.81	-$3	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 12¢	$85.54	$99.8	+$14.26	38% 152-244 (396)
LZ lzh1<$100	Shanxi Loongsavg 84¢	$74.65	$75.1	+$0.44	43% 451-602 (1053)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 13¢	$51.52	$57.47	+$9.91	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
VeryLucky888CTR	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 14.6¢	$150.25	$39.28	-$16.62	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Shanxi Loongsavg 88¢	$18.48	$18.06	-$0.74	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 15.1¢	$11.4	$10.56	-$0.84	52% 5870-5504 (11374)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Shenzhen Leopardsavg 15¢	$7.18	$6.94	-$0.24	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
HRTrading<$100	Shanxi Loongsavg 85.8¢	$5.35	$5.35	+$0.1	53% 3042-2707 (5749)

KevinEZM427

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$700

Value

$708.24

PnL

+$8.24

Record

84%

358-66 (424)

xtxpleasecallme

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$131.81

Value

$128.81

PnL

-$3

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$85.54

Value

$99.8

PnL

+$14.26

Record

38%

152-244 (396)

lzh1<$100

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$74.65

Value

$75.1

PnL

+$0.44

Record

43%

451-602 (1053)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$51.52

Value

$57.47

PnL

+$9.91

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

VeryLucky888CTR

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$150.25

Value

$39.28

PnL

-$16.62

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$18.48

Value

$18.06

PnL

-$0.74

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$11.4

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$0.84

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Shenzhen Leopards

Invested

$7.18

Value

$6.94

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

HRTrading<$100

Shanxi Loongs

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

Research grade

AvoidShanxi Loongs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shanxi Loongs

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Shanxi Loongs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShenzhen Leopards 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpShanxi Loongs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrShenzhen Leopards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedShanxi Loongs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Shanxi Loongs 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shanxi Loongs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.