Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Beijing Royal Fighters: O/U 182.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 34¢ · $789 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$789.38
-$5.08
53.5¢ → 33.5¢
-37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Overavg 46¢ | $351.3 | $385.66 | +$34.37 | 43% 484-642 (1126) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 53.6¢ | $238.9 | $213.93 | -$24.97 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Underavg 54¢ | $140.36 | $124.76 | -$15.6 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 51.6¢ | $86.95 | $44.67 | +$3.78 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $9.45 | $8.4 | -$1.05 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 47.9¢ | $34.27 | $6.08 | -$2.17 | 45% 12902-15667 (28569) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5.54 | $5.87 | +$0.55 | 50% 4634-4563 (9197) |
Invested
$351.3
Value
$385.66
PnL
+$34.37
Record
43%
484-642 (1126)
Invested
$238.9
Value
$213.93
PnL
-$24.97
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$140.36
Value
$124.76
PnL
-$15.6
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$86.95
Value
$44.67
PnL
+$3.78
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$1.05
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
Invested
$34.27
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$2.17
Record
45%
12902-15667 (28569)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
4634-4563 (9197)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.