Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters, while the market favors Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin (75%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Beijing Royal Fighters (-6.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters (36%) · Beijing Royal Fighters at 25¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Beijing Royal Fighters25¢Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin75¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beijing Royal Fighters

Consensus Traders

Beijing Royal Fighters 36%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$769.38

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 25¢

-49% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Beijing Royal Fighters25%

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beijing Royal Fighters4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,182

Combined PnL-$914.84

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,175

Combined PnL+$145.46

Beijing Royal Fighters — 36%Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Beijing Royal Fighters. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LZ lzh1CTR	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$920	43% 484-642 (1126)
FL Flaznorp	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 49.5¢	$696.18	$784.11	+$55.54	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
FE ferdinand2	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 50¢	$430.59	$470.22	+$50.52	51% 997-961 (1958)
SU suntori<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 50¢	$49.51	$71.74	+$22.23	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
CH chongchong37<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 48¢	$37.18	$46.86	+$6.58	53% 125-112 (237)
HRTrading<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 49.9¢	$38.06	$44.71	+$6.65	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
VeryLucky888<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 49¢	$27.61	$30.82	+$3.21	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
QU QuentinChenCTR<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 51¢	$38.29	$29.66	-$8.63	47% 326-370 (696)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 16.8¢	$16.13	$27.4	+$11.27	50% 4634-4563 (9197)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 49¢	$2.45	$3.53	+$0.73	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
poshposhCTR<$100	Beijing Royal Fightersavg 8¢	$0.86	$3.39	+$2.53	58% 11432-8282 (19714)

lzh1CTR

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$920

Record

43%

484-642 (1126)

Flaznorp

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$696.18

Value

$784.11

PnL

+$55.54

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

ferdinand2

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$430.59

Value

$470.22

PnL

+$50.52

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

suntori<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$49.51

Value

$71.74

PnL

+$22.23

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

chongchong37<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$37.18

Value

$46.86

PnL

+$6.58

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

HRTrading<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$38.06

Value

$44.71

PnL

+$6.65

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

VeryLucky888<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$27.61

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$3.21

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

QuentinChenCTR<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$38.29

Value

$29.66

PnL

-$8.63

Record

47%

326-370 (696)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$16.13

Value

$27.4

PnL

+$11.27

Record

50%

4634-4563 (9197)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.73

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

poshposhCTR<$100

Beijing Royal Fighters

Invested

$0.86

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$2.53

Record

58%

11432-8282 (19714)

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Royal Fighters

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Beijing Royal Fighters. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedShandong Hi-Speed Kirin 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beijing Royal Fighters wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.