Qingdao Eagles vs. Tianjin Pioneers

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (75%) · Qingdao Eagles at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Qingdao Eagles98¢Tianjin Pioneers2¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Qingdao Eagles

Consensus Traders

Qingdao Eagles 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$61.95

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 98¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Qingdao Eagles98%

Tianjin Pioneers2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Qingdao Eagles6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,523

Combined PnL+$60.98

Tianjin Pioneers2 traders

Total Value$10.52

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$0.97

Qingdao Eagles — 75%Tianjin Pioneers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RU Ruler11	Qingdao Eaglesavg 71¢	$496.98	$559.98	+$63	51% 278-265 (543)
LS LSS1	Qingdao Eaglesavg 92.1¢	$409.49	$393.41	-$16.08	72% 1533-600 (2133)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Qingdao Eaglesavg 80¢	$175.82	$194.51	+$18.68	36% 14556-26000 (40556)
VeryLucky888	Qingdao Eaglesavg 81.6¢	$102.06	$95	-$7.06	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 81.9¢	$31.14	$30.4	-$0.74	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
HRTrading<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 81.9¢	$17.11	$20.29	+$3.18	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
poshposhCTR<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 12.6¢	$5.91	$10.15	+$4.24	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 29¢	$3.63	$0.36	-$3.27	59% 29919-20640 (50559)

Ruler11

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$496.98

Value

$559.98

PnL

+$63

Record

51%

278-265 (543)

LSS1

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$409.49

Value

$393.41

PnL

-$16.08

Record

72%

1533-600 (2133)

xtxpleasecallme

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$175.82

Value

$194.51

PnL

+$18.68

Record

36%

14556-26000 (40556)

VeryLucky888

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$102.06

Value

$95

PnL

-$7.06

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$31.14

Value

$30.4

PnL

-$0.74

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

HRTrading<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$17.11

Value

$20.29

PnL

+$3.18

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

poshposhCTR<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$5.91

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$4.24

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$3.27

Record

59%

29919-20640 (50559)

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Qingdao Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.