Spread: Liaoning Flying Leopards (-14.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Shenzhen Leopards (60%) · Shenzhen Leopards at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Shenzhen Leopards
5
Shenzhen Leopards 60%
$1.2K
-$196.57
45.9¢ → 51.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidShenzhen Leopards at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Shenzhen Leopards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 88M | Shenzhen Leopardsavg 46.5¢ | $929.99 | $679.99 | -$289.99 | 42% 792-1088 (1880) |
 BasquetipsterCTR | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 55¢ | $295.34 | $295.34 | +$16.11 | 68% 1673-770 (2443) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 54.7¢ | $185.81 | $245.28 | +$59.46 | 50% 238-236 (474) |
CL claudesports<$100 | Shenzhen Leopardsavg 25¢ | $2.8 | $13.6 | +$10.8 | 35% 349-650 (999) |
 poshposh<$100 | Shenzhen Leopardsavg 33.5¢ | $3.62 | $10.68 | +$7.05 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
88MInvested
$929.99
Value
$679.99
PnL
-$289.99
Record
42%
792-1088 (1880)
BasquetipsterCTRInvested
$295.34
Value
$295.34
PnL
+$16.11
Record
68%
1673-770 (2443)
Invested
$185.81
Value
$245.28
PnL
+$59.46
Record
50%
238-236 (474)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$10.8
Record
35%
349-650 (999)
poshposh<$100Invested
$3.62
Value
$10.68
PnL
+$7.05
Record
58%
10646-7629 (18275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.