Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shenzhen Leopards
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Liaoning Flying Leopards (75%) · Liaoning Flying Leopards at 90¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Liaoning Flying Leopards
4
Liaoning Flying Leopards 75%
$175.61
$0.68
88.9¢ → 90¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLiaoning Flying Leopards at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Liaoning Flying Leopards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 89¢ | $155.47 | $155.47 | +$0.87 | 68% 1670-770 (2440) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 88¢ | $15.84 | $16.02 | +$0.18 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR<$100 | Shenzhen Leopardsavg 17¢ | $1.02 | $3 | -$0.39 | 60% 884-580 (1464) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Liaoning Flying Leopardsavg 88¢ | $1.1 | $1.11 | +$0.01 | 53% 5545-4956 (10501) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$155.47
Value
$155.47
PnL
+$0.87
Record
68%
1670-770 (2440)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16.02
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.39
Record
60%
884-580 (1464)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5545-4956 (10501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.