Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Qingdao Eagles: O/U 174.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 25¢ · $923 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$922.73
-$236.36
53.9¢ → 24.5¢
-55% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotradecopyCTR | Underavg 54¢ | $573.72 | $414.36 | -$159.37 | 49% 3953-4141 (8094) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 55.1¢ | $182.61 | $176.01 | -$6.6 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 53.7¢ | $204.4 | $165.26 | -$39.14 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.7¢ | $177.22 | $128.67 | -$48.54 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.3¢ | $27.19 | $36.59 | +$9.4 | |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $172.58 | $126.99 | -$45.59 | 59% 4098-2906 (7004) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $19.5 | -$7 | 50% 4634-4563 (9197) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 56.7¢ | $34.97 | $14.24 | -$18.85 | 45% 12902-15667 (28569) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.5¢ | $1.15 | $3.3 | +$2.15 | 46% 7932-9255 (17187) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.17 | $3.07 | -$1.1 | 58% 11432-8282 (19714) |
Invested
$573.72
Value
$414.36
PnL
-$159.37
Record
49%
3953-4141 (8094)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$182.61
Value
$176.01
PnL
-$6.6
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$204.4
Value
$165.26
PnL
-$39.14
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.58
Value
$126.99
PnL
-$45.59
Record
59%
4098-2906 (7004)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$7
Record
50%
4634-4563 (9197)
Invested
$34.97
Value
$14.24
PnL
-$18.85
Record
45%
12902-15667 (28569)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$2.15
Record
46%
7932-9255 (17187)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.17
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
11432-8282 (19714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.