Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Qingdao Eagles

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Qingdao Eagles (83%) · Qingdao Eagles at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Guangdong Southern Tigers46¢Qingdao Eagles54¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Qingdao Eagles

Consensus Traders

Qingdao Eagles 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$20.08

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 54.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Guangdong Southern Tigers46%

Qingdao Eagles55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Qingdao Eagles5 traders

Total Value$349.79

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$20.08

Guangdong Southern Tigers1 trader

Total Value$41.37

Total Shares74

Combined PnL+$0

Qingdao Eagles — 83%Guangdong Southern Tigers — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 61.7¢	$785.82	$646.14	-$87.52	58% 47788-33996 (81784)
└ Guangdong Southern Tigers leg	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 61.7¢	$584.86	$426.73	-$105.97
└ Qingdao Eagles leg	Qingdao Eaglesavg 50.4¢	$200.96	$219.41	+$18.45
SN SnakeBall	Qingdao Eaglesavg 49.7¢	$128.5	$142.25	-$0.47	50% 34244-33812 (68056)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 49.6¢	$135.64	$127.15	-$8.49	51% 16720-15862 (32582)
└ Guangdong Southern Tigers leg	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 49.6¢	$99.58	$88.41	-$11.17
└ Qingdao Eagles leg	Qingdao Eaglesavg 52.1¢	$36.06	$38.74	+$2.68
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 46.7¢	$83.31	$95.51	+$12.16	49% 13274-13998 (27272)
VeryLucky888	Qingdao Eaglesavg 49.3¢	$344.81	$81.12	+$7.27	58% 43237-31478 (74715)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 63¢	$41.37	$41.37	+$0	53% 471-410 (881)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 50¢	$22.95	$25.7	-$0.23	50% 19669-20037 (39706)
HRTrading<$100	Qingdao Eaglesavg 36.6¢	$3.86	$5.22	+$1.35	53% 6305-5681 (11986)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$785.82

Value

$646.14

PnL

-$87.52

Record

58%

47788-33996 (81784)

Both legs:

Guangdong Southern Tigers$584.8661.7¢-$105.97

Qingdao Eagles$200.9650.4¢+$18.45

SnakeBall

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$128.5

Value

$142.25

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

34244-33812 (68056)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$135.64

Value

$127.15

PnL

-$8.49

Record

51%

16720-15862 (32582)

Both legs:

Guangdong Southern Tigers$99.5849.6¢-$11.17

Qingdao Eagles$36.0652.1¢+$2.68

LuckyLoo<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$83.31

Value

$95.51

PnL

+$12.16

Record

49%

13274-13998 (27272)

VeryLucky888

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$344.81

Value

$81.12

PnL

+$7.27

Record

58%

43237-31478 (74715)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Guangdong Southern Tigers

Invested

$41.37

Value

$41.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

471-410 (881)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$22.95

Value

$25.7

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

19669-20037 (39706)

HRTrading<$100

Qingdao Eagles

Invested

$3.86

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

6305-5681 (11986)

Research grade

AvoidQingdao Eagles at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Qingdao Eagles

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Qingdao Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.