Trabzonspor vs. Petkim Spor

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (10%) · Trabzonspor at 64¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 14

Trabzonspor64¢Petkim Spor36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trabzonspor

Consensus Traders

Trabzonspor 10%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

-$318.98

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trabzonspor64%

Petkim Spor36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trabzonspor1 trader

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares25,029

Combined PnL-$264.59

Petkim Spor9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares10,792

Combined PnL-$54.39

Trabzonspor — 10%Petkim Spor — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePetkim Spor 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpTrabzonspor 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Trabzonsporavg 65.1¢	$16.3K	$16.0K	-$264.59	76% 64-20 (84)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.1¢	$1,000	$910.85	-$32.22	48% 4043-4324 (8367)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.9¢	$822.66	$880.26	+$57.6	57% 4275-3202 (7477)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Petkim Sporavg 37.1¢	$758.32	$704.46	-$53.86	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
GT gt7238CTR	Petkim Sporavg 38.1¢	$463.19	$474.59	+$11.4	45% 663-822 (1485)
tradecraftCTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.1¢	$326.28	$320.55	-$5.72	51% 6491-6261 (12752)
SE sentrioCTR	Petkim Sporavg 35.8¢	$200.2	$193.92	-$6.42	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
VeryLucky888CTR	Petkim Sporavg 38¢	$140.44	$118.39	-$22.05	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 39.2¢	$28.26	$24.5	-$3.75	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 37.2¢	$9.45	$10.08	+$0.63	49% 265-277 (542)

stepanka1234

Trabzonspor

Invested

$16,283.02

Value

$16.0K

PnL

-$264.59

Record

76%

64-20 (84)

NotradecopyCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$1,000

Value

$910.85

PnL

-$32.22

Record

48%

4043-4324 (8367)

Bagwell306CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$822.66

Value

$880.26

PnL

+$57.6

Record

57%

4275-3202 (7477)

FlaznorpCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$758.32

Value

$704.46

PnL

-$53.86

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

gt7238CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$463.19

Value

$474.59

PnL

+$11.4

Record

45%

663-822 (1485)

tradecraftCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$326.28

Value

$320.55

PnL

-$5.72

Record

51%

6491-6261 (12752)

sentrioCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$200.2

Value

$193.92

PnL

-$6.42

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

VeryLucky888CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$140.44

Value

$118.39

PnL

-$22.05

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$28.26

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$3.75

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$9.45

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

265-277 (542)

Research grade

AvoidTrabzonspor at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trabzonspor

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Trabzonspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePetkim Spor 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpTrabzonspor 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPetkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trabzonspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.