Petkim Spor vs. Turk Telekom

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Turk Telekom (22%) · Turk Telekom at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 21

Petkim Spor45¢Turk Telekom55¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Turk Telekom

Consensus Traders

Turk Telekom 22%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$3.5

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTurk Telekom at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turk Telekom

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Petkim Spor45%

Turk Telekom56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turk Telekom2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,633

Combined PnL-$47.65

Petkim Spor7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,612

Combined PnL+$44.15

Turk Telekom — 22%Petkim Spor — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Turk Telekom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPetkim Spor 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Turk Telekomavg 57.5¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$50.9	— 8-7 (15)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Petkim Sporavg 42¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$23.81	52% 32-29 (61)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Petkim Sporavg 42¢	$999.98	$1.0K	+$23.81	17% 37-184 (221)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Petkim Sporavg 43.2¢	$787.87	$784.32	-$3.55	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrioCTR	Petkim Sporavg 43.2¢	$177.11	$184.52	+$7.41	43% 808-1065 (1873)
VeryLucky888CTR	Petkim Sporavg 44.4¢	$194.51	$178.75	-$5.42	53% 1030-921 (1951)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Petkim Sporavg 50¢	$389	$82.13	-$1.91	75% 112-37 (149)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Turk Telekomavg 53.9¢	$59.63	$62.87	+$3.25	44% 391-495 (886)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Petkim Sporavg 43¢	$3.87	$3.87	+$0	33% 64-132 (196)

stepanka1234

Turk Telekom

Invested

$4,326.81

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$50.9

Record

—

8-7 (15)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.81

Record

52%

32-29 (61)

NotradecopyCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$999.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.81

Record

17%

37-184 (221)

FlaznorpCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$787.87

Value

$784.32

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrioCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$177.11

Value

$184.52

PnL

+$7.41

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

VeryLucky888CTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$194.51

Value

$178.75

PnL

-$5.42

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Petkim Spor

Invested

$389

Value

$82.13

PnL

-$1.91

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Turk Telekom

Invested

$59.63

Value

$62.87

PnL

+$3.25

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Petkim Spor

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

64-132 (196)

Research grade

AvoidTurk Telekom at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Turk Telekom

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Turk Telekom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPetkim Spor 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetkim Spor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petkim Spor 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turk Telekom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.