Denizli Basket vs. Cayirova

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Denizli Basket (57%) · Denizli Basket at 59¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Denizli Basket59¢Cayirova41¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Denizli Basket

Consensus Traders

Denizli Basket 57%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$118.23

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 58.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDenizli Basket at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Denizli Basket

4 of 7 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Denizli Basket59%

Cayirova42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Denizli Basket4 traders

Total Value$778.26

Total Shares1,314

Combined PnL+$123.6

Cayirova3 traders

Total Value$154.51

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$5.37

Denizli Basket — 57%Cayirova — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Denizli Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cayirova) and the top 1000 (10 on Denizli Basket) disagree here.

sharpDenizli Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDenizli Basket 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCayirova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Denizli Basket 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 45.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$177.74	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 45.1¢	$864.32	$1.1K	+$275.87
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 49.9¢	$521.66	$423.53	-$98.13
OM omnibus-076daa	Denizli Basketavg 49.7¢	$601.9	$721.02	+$119.12	46% 621-730 (1351)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 46.6¢	$565.54	$646.07	+$80.53	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 46.6¢	$375.97	$467.61	+$91.64
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 44.6¢	$189.56	$178.46	-$11.11
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 49.5¢	$572	$578	+$6	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 49.5¢	$309.5	$331.25	+$21.75
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 50¢	$262.5	$246.75	-$15.75
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 49.4¢	$190.29	$197.38	+$7.09	83% 960-199 (1159)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 49.4¢	$101.27	$121.96	+$20.7
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 47.8¢	$89.03	$75.42	-$13.61
poshposhARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 46.9¢	$216.04	$171.53	-$44.51	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 46.9¢	$152.65	$99.31	-$53.34
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 61¢	$63.39	$72.22	+$8.83
SU suntoriARB<$100	Denizli Basketavg 53.6¢	$163.13	$133.88	-$13.84	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
└ Denizli Basket leg	Denizli Basketavg 53.6¢	$97.59	$105.66	+$8.07
└ Cayirova leg	Cayirovaavg 73¢	$49.04	$28.21	-$21.91
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Cayirovaavg 44¢	$97.72	$94	+$6.36	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cayirovaavg 50¢	$34.67	$32.59	-$2.08	43% 243-324 (567)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cayirovaavg 57.7¢	$130.59	$27.92	-$9.65	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
tradecraft<$100	Denizli Basketavg 52.5¢	$23.79	$24.01	+$0.22	34% 460-894 (1354)
LR lryyy<$100	Denizli Basketavg 46.3¢	$20.35	$23.32	+$2.97	45% 963-1156 (2119)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Denizli Basketavg 51.1¢	$11.47	$9.91	+$1.29	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$1,385.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$177.74

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$864.3245.1¢+$275.87

Cayirova$521.6649.9¢-$98.13

omnibus-076daa

Denizli Basket

Invested

$601.9

Value

$721.02

PnL

+$119.12

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$565.54

Value

$646.07

PnL

+$80.53

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$375.9746.6¢+$91.64

Cayirova$189.5644.6¢-$11.11

NotJumpARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$572

Value

$578

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$309.549.5¢+$21.75

Cayirova$262.550¢-$15.75

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$190.29

Value

$197.38

PnL

+$7.09

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$101.2749.4¢+$20.7

Cayirova$89.0347.8¢-$13.61

poshposhARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$216.04

Value

$171.53

PnL

-$44.51

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$152.6546.9¢-$53.34

Cayirova$63.3961¢+$8.83

suntoriARB<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$163.13

Value

$133.88

PnL

-$13.84

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Both legs:

Denizli Basket$97.5953.6¢+$8.07

Cayirova$49.0473¢-$21.91

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Cayirova

Invested

$97.72

Value

$94

PnL

+$6.36

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cayirova

Invested

$34.67

Value

$32.59

PnL

-$2.08

Record

43%

243-324 (567)

38791873984189CTR

Cayirova

Invested

$130.59

Value

$27.92

PnL

-$9.65

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

tradecraft<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$23.79

Value

$24.01

PnL

+$0.22

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

lryyy<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$20.35

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$2.97

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

ferdinand2<$100

Denizli Basket

Invested

$11.47

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$1.29

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

AvoidDenizli Basket at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Denizli Basket

4 of 7 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Denizli Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cayirova) and the top 1000 (10 on Denizli Basket) disagree here.

sharpDenizli Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDenizli Basket 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCayirova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Denizli Basket 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Denizli Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.