Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (71%) · Fenerbahce at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Fenerbahce87¢Anadolu Efes13¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fenerbahce

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahce 71%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$274.07

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 87¢

+41% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fenerbahce87%

Anadolu Efes13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahce12 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,509

Combined PnL+$291.72

Anadolu Efes5 traders

Total Value$625.81

Total Shares750

Combined PnL-$17.64

Fenerbahce — 71%Anadolu Efes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFenerbahce 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahce 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Fenerbahceavg 67.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$98.1	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
SN SnakeBall	Fenerbahceavg 54.6¢	$636.48	$887.19	+$250.71	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
NO NotJumpCTR	Anadolu Efesavg 50¢	$525	$546	+$21	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
OM omnibus-076daa	Fenerbahceavg 54.2¢	$284.09	$366.86	+$82.77	46% 653-760 (1413)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Fenerbahceavg 47.2¢	$114.98	$137.57	+$22.59	83% 991-206 (1197)
38 38791873984189<$100	Fenerbahceavg 48.6¢	$85.63	$84.95	+$32.21	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
CI cigarettes<$100	Fenerbahceavg 89¢	$91.75	$80.64	-$11.11	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
alpheclabs2<$100	Fenerbahceavg 81¢	$47.53	$46.95	-$0.59	45% 373-460 (833)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 50¢	$48.29	$45.58	-$2.71	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
US User7429<$100	Fenerbahceavg 68¢	$24.5	$28.82	+$4.32	43% 435-570 (1005)
SU suntori<$100	Fenerbahceavg 75¢	$19.04	$21.32	+$2.28	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 26¢	$23.27	$17.9	-$5.37	43% 246-326 (572)
poshposhCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 62.2¢	$44.3	$14.25	-$30.05	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
BI biying88888<$100	Fenerbahceavg 38¢	$3.62	$8	+$4.38	44% 244-314 (558)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Fenerbahceavg 37¢	$1.85	$4.15	+$2.3	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 25¢	$2.6	$2.08	-$0.52	35% 485-917 (1402)
LR lryyy<$100	Fenerbahceavg 84¢	$1.31	$1.25	-$0.06	46% 998-1194 (2192)

Flaznorp

Fenerbahce

Invested

$1,594.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$98.1

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

SnakeBall

Fenerbahce

Invested

$636.48

Value

$887.19

PnL

+$250.71

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

NotJumpCTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$525

Value

$546

PnL

+$21

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

omnibus-076daa

Fenerbahce

Invested

$284.09

Value

$366.86

PnL

+$82.77

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Fenerbahce

Invested

$114.98

Value

$137.57

PnL

+$22.59

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

38791873984189<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$85.63

Value

$84.95

PnL

+$32.21

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

cigarettes<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$91.75

Value

$80.64

PnL

-$11.11

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

alpheclabs2<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$47.53

Value

$46.95

PnL

-$0.59

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

sentrioCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$48.29

Value

$45.58

PnL

-$2.71

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

User7429<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$24.5

Value

$28.82

PnL

+$4.32

Record

43%

435-570 (1005)

suntori<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$19.04

Value

$21.32

PnL

+$2.28

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$23.27

Value

$17.9

PnL

-$5.37

Record

43%

246-326 (572)

poshposhCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$44.3

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$30.05

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

biying88888<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$3.62

Value

PnL

+$4.38

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

ferdinand2<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$1.85

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$2.3

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.52

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

lryyy<$100

Fenerbahce

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFenerbahce 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahce 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.