Bursaspor vs. Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (20%) · Fenerbahce at 80¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 14

Bursaspor21¢Fenerbahce79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fenerbahce

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahce 20%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$68.92

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bursaspor21%

Fenerbahce80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahce1 trader

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares18,798

Combined PnL-$18.47

Bursaspor4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,576

Combined PnL+$87.38

Fenerbahce — 20%Bursaspor — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bursaspor 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Fenerbahceavg 80.1¢	$15.1K	$15.0K	-$18.47	76% 64-20 (84)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bursasporavg 22¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$97.8	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 22¢	$880.8	$759.41	-$121.38
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 75.9¢	$348.05	$371.64	+$23.59
CI cigarettesCTR	Bursasporavg 19.9¢	$782.74	$867.15	+$84.41	53% 24137-21182 (45319)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Bursasporavg 21.9¢	$529.94	$548.56	+$18.63	57% 4276-3203 (7479)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Bursasporavg 50¢	$304.27	$276.42	-$115.85	—
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 50¢	$100.26	$162.42	+$58.15
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 50¢	$300	$114	-$174
SE sentrioARB<$100	Bursasporavg 22.1¢	$281.4	$253.96	-$22.7	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
└ Bursaspor leg	Bursasporavg 22.1¢	$225.03	$193.38	-$26.54
└ Fenerbahce leg	Fenerbahceavg 75.4¢	$56.37	$60.58	+$3.84
tradecraftCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 21.1¢	$82.75	$82.93	+$0.18	51% 6507-6271 (12778)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Bursasporavg 24.1¢	$74.87	$59.04	-$15.83	58% 47334-34134 (81468)

stepanka1234

Fenerbahce

Invested

$15,056.9

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$18.47

Record

76%

64-20 (84)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$1,228.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$97.8

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

Both legs:

Bursaspor$880.822¢-$121.38

Fenerbahce$348.0575.9¢+$23.59

cigarettesCTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$782.74

Value

$867.15

PnL

+$84.41

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

Bagwell306CTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$529.94

Value

$548.56

PnL

+$18.63

Record

57%

4276-3203 (7479)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$304.27

Value

$276.42

PnL

-$115.85

Record

—

Both legs:

Fenerbahce$100.2650¢+$58.15

Bursaspor$30050¢-$174

sentrioARB<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$281.4

Value

$253.96

PnL

-$22.7

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

Both legs:

Bursaspor$225.0322.1¢-$26.54

Fenerbahce$56.3775.4¢+$3.84

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$82.75

Value

$82.93

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

6507-6271 (12778)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$74.87

Value

$59.04

PnL

-$15.83

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

Research grade

AvoidFenerbahce at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahce

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFenerbahce 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBursaspor 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBursaspor 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bursaspor 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.