Besiktas vs. Bursaspor

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Besiktas (44%) · Besiktas at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Besiktas98¢Bursaspor2¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Besiktas

Consensus Traders

Besiktas 44%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$2.36

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 98¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBesiktas at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Besiktas

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Besiktas98%

Bursaspor2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Besiktas4 traders

Total Value$729.91

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$43.54

Bursaspor5 traders

Total Value$554.65

Total Shares1,380

Combined PnL-$41.17

Besiktas — 44%Bursaspor — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Besiktas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBesiktas 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bursaspor 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Besiktasavg 88.8¢	$613.72	$652.24	+$38.52	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
NO NotJumpCTR	Bursasporavg 50¢	$525	$477.22	-$47.78	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 9.6¢	$53.44	$51.34	-$2.1	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
38 38791873984189<$100	Besiktasavg 86.8¢	$45.14	$47.22	+$2.08	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SM smithagent<$100	Besiktasavg 82.7¢	$16.54	$19.59	+$3.05	46% 882-1039 (1921)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 4¢	$42.94	$14.69	+$12.05	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Besiktasavg 99¢	$10.98	$10.86	-$0.12	46% 643-756 (1399)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bursasporavg 11¢	$13.66	$10.18	-$3.48	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Bursasporavg 8.2¢	$1.08	$1.22	+$0.13	38% 496-823 (1319)

SnakeBall

Besiktas

Invested

$613.72

Value

$652.24

PnL

+$38.52

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

NotJumpCTR

Bursaspor

Invested

$525

Value

$477.22

PnL

-$47.78

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$53.44

Value

$51.34

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

38791873984189<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$45.14

Value

$47.22

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

smithagent<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$16.54

Value

$19.59

PnL

+$3.05

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$42.94

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$12.05

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$10.98

Value

$10.86

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$13.66

Value

$10.18

PnL

-$3.48

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Bursaspor

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.13

Record

38%

496-823 (1319)

Research grade

AvoidBesiktas at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Besiktas

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Besiktas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBesiktas 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bursaspor 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Besiktas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.