Bandirma Bordo vs. Karsiyaka

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bandirma Bordo (63%) · Bandirma Bordo at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Bandirma Bordo52¢Karsiyaka48¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bandirma Bordo

Consensus Traders

Bandirma Bordo 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$49.44

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 52¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBandirma Bordo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bandirma Bordo

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bandirma Bordo52%

Karsiyaka48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bandirma Bordo5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,872

Combined PnL-$54.63

Karsiyaka3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,623

Combined PnL+$5.19

Bandirma Bordo — 63%Karsiyaka — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Bandirma Bordo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Karsiyaka) and the top 1000 (7 on Bandirma Bordo) disagree here.

sharpBandirma Bordo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKarsiyaka 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKarsiyaka 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bandirma Bordo 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234	Bandirma Bordoavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$63.29	— 8-8 (16)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Karsiyakaavg 48¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	19% 44-191 (235)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Karsiyakaavg 48¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	52% 37-34 (71)
VeryLucky888CTR	Karsiyakaavg 50.2¢	$439.91	$219	+$5.19	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Karsiyakaavg 50¢	$1.3K	$190.92	-$0.08	70% 127-55 (182)
└ Bandirma Bordo leg	Bandirma Bordoavg 50¢	$95.5	$99.24	+$3.74
└ Karsiyaka leg	Karsiyakaavg 50¢	$95.5	$91.68	-$3.82
FL Flaznorp	Bandirma Bordoavg 48.5¢	$118.17	$123.98	+$5.81	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
SE sentrio<$100	Bandirma Bordoavg 48.1¢	$25.53	$26.93	+$1.39	42% 970-1328 (2298)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bandirma Bordoavg 48.7¢	$14.6	$15.59	+$0.99	48% 2022-2162 (4184)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Bandirma Bordoavg 49¢	$7.84	$8.31	+$0.47	51% 150-147 (297)

stepanka1234

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$2,380.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$63.29

Record

—

8-8 (16)

NotradecopyCTR

Karsiyaka

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Karsiyaka

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

VeryLucky888CTR

Karsiyaka

Invested

$439.91

Value

$219

PnL

+$5.19

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Karsiyaka

Invested

$1,319

Value

$190.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

70%

127-55 (182)

Both legs:

Bandirma Bordo$95.550¢+$3.74

Karsiyaka$95.550¢-$3.82

Flaznorp

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$118.17

Value

$123.98

PnL

+$5.81

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

sentrio<$100

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$25.53

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$1.39

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

ferdinand2<$100

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$14.6

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$0.99

Record

48%

2022-2162 (4184)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Bandirma Bordo

Invested

$7.84

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

150-147 (297)

Research grade

AvoidBandirma Bordo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bandirma Bordo

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Bandirma Bordo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Karsiyaka) and the top 1000 (7 on Bandirma Bordo) disagree here.

sharpBandirma Bordo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKarsiyaka 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKarsiyaka 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bandirma Bordo 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bandirma Bordo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.