Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Science City Jena, while the market favors Hamburg Towers (60%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Science City Jena vs. Hamburg Towers

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Science City Jena (50%) · Science City Jena at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Science City Jena41¢Hamburg Towers59¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Science City Jena

Consensus Traders

Science City Jena 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$370.5

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 40.5¢

-31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidScience City Jena at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Science City Jena

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hamburg Towers 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Science City Jena41%

Hamburg Towers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Science City Jena6 traders

Total Value$838.97

Total Shares2,164

Combined PnL-$487.96

Hamburg Towers6 traders

Total Value$609.7

Total Shares932

Combined PnL+$117.46

Science City Jena — 50%Hamburg Towers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Science City Jena. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Science City Jena 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Science City Jenaavg 61.6¢	$960.28	$373.86	-$233	—
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	Science City Jenaavg 58¢	$580	$350	-$230	—
VE Venusian	Hamburg Towersavg 37.4¢	$288.16	$302.5	+$14.34	—
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Science City Jenaavg 64¢	$338.32	$95.67	-$21.14	—
└ Hamburg Towers leg	Hamburg Towersavg 38.5¢	$48.79	$50.66	-$0.13
└ Science City Jena leg	Science City Jenaavg 64¢	$64.01	$45.01	-$21
SN SnakeBall	Hamburg Towersavg 39.3¢	$147.09	$92.67	+$34.81	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 35¢	$61.03	$92.65	+$31.62	—
BA Bayupati<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 37¢	$33.48	$58.82	+$25.34	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Science City Jenaavg 55.8¢	$153	$58.14	-$27.29	—
tradecraft<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 44.5¢	$43.59	$55.48	+$11.89	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Science City Jenaavg 45¢	$35.36	$38.13	+$2.77	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Science City Jenaavg 37¢	$14.34	$15.16	+$0.82	—
SE sentrio<$100	Hamburg Towersavg 44¢	$8.12	$7.58	-$0.54	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Science City Jenaavg 45¢	$4.95	$3.69	-$1.27	—

FlaznorpCTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$960.28

Value

$373.86

PnL

-$233

Record

—

dribblingbanana69CTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$580

Value

$350

PnL

-$230

Record

—

Venusian

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$288.16

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$14.34

Record

—

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$338.32

Value

$95.67

PnL

-$21.14

Record

—

Both legs:

Hamburg Towers$48.7938.5¢-$0.13

Science City Jena$64.0164¢-$21

SnakeBall

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$147.09

Value

$92.67

PnL

+$34.81

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$61.03

Value

$92.65

PnL

+$31.62

Record

—

Bayupati<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$33.48

Value

$58.82

PnL

+$25.34

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$153

Value

$58.14

PnL

-$27.29

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$43.59

Value

$55.48

PnL

+$11.89

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$35.36

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$2.77

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$14.34

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$0.82

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Hamburg Towers

Invested

$8.12

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$4.95

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$1.27

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidScience City Jena at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Science City Jena

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hamburg Towers 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Science City Jena. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Science City Jena 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Science City Jena wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.