Science City Jena vs. Fraport Skyliners

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Fraport Skyliners (29%) · Fraport Skyliners at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Science City Jena23¢Fraport Skyliners77¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fraport Skyliners

Consensus Traders

Fraport Skyliners 29%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$164.33

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 77.3¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFraport Skyliners at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fraport Skyliners

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Science City Jena23%

Fraport Skyliners77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Science City Jena5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,610

Combined PnL+$927.11

Fraport Skyliners2 traders

Total Value$938.36

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL-$762.78

Science City Jena — 71%Fraport Skyliners — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Science City Jenaavg 13¢	$274.97	$1.1K	+$782.09	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
HRTrading	Fraport Skylinersavg 96.5¢	$1.0K	$535.49	-$498.1	52% 3688-3350 (7038)
poshposh	Fraport Skylinersavg 82.8¢	$667.54	$402.87	-$264.67	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
SP spartachioCTR	Science City Jenaavg 21¢	$54.76	$130.5	+$75.74	48% 691-746 (1437)
BA BayupatiCTR	Science City Jenaavg 21¢	$46.38	$110.44	+$64.06	51% 216-204 (420)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Science City Jenaavg 2.7¢	$0.19	$3.6	+$3.41	36% 15094-27222 (42316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Science City Jenaavg 21.4¢	$1.36	$3.18	+$1.82	58% 41216-29879 (71095)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$274.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$782.09

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

HRTrading

Fraport Skyliners

Invested

$1,033.6

Value

$535.49

PnL

-$498.1

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

poshposh

Fraport Skyliners

Invested

$667.54

Value

$402.87

PnL

-$264.67

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

spartachioCTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$54.76

Value

$130.5

PnL

+$75.74

Record

48%

691-746 (1437)

BayupatiCTR

Science City Jena

Invested

$46.38

Value

$110.44

PnL

+$64.06

Record

51%

216-204 (420)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$0.19

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$3.41

Record

36%

15094-27222 (42316)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Science City Jena

Invested

$1.36

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$1.82

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

Research grade

AvoidFraport Skyliners at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fraport Skyliners

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fraport Skyliners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.1%

77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.