Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SC RASTA Vechta, while the market favors Rostock Seawolves (67%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rostock Seawolves vs. SC RASTA Vechta

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold SC RASTA Vechta (75%) · SC RASTA Vechta at 33¢ · $838 held · ends Nov 22

Rostock Seawolves67¢SC RASTA Vechta33¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SC RASTA Vechta

Consensus Traders

SC RASTA Vechta 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$838.29

Combined PnL

-$0.72

Smart Money Entry

31.8¢ → 33¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSC RASTA Vechta at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SC RASTA Vechta

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Rostock Seawolves 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rostock Seawolves67%

SC RASTA Vechta33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SC RASTA Vechta6 traders

Total Value$460.28

Total Shares1,450

Combined PnL-$4.25

Rostock Seawolves2 traders

Total Value$176.57

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$3.53

SC RASTA Vechta — 75%Rostock Seawolves — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 69¢	$197.45	$201.45	+$4	46% 621-730 (1351)
└ Rostock Seawolves leg	Rostock Seawolvesavg 69¢	$141.45	$141.45	-$0
└ SC RASTA Vechta leg	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 28¢	$56	$60	+$4
SN SnakeBallCTR	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 32¢	$143.02	$145.26	+$2.23	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
VeryLucky888CTR	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 31.5¢	$198	$130	+$0	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Rostock Seawolvesavg 50¢	$260	$109.71	+$1.59	64% 145-81 (226)
BA Bayupati<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 67¢	$64.92	$66.86	+$1.94	20% 40-164 (204)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 32.2¢	$65.38	$60.88	-$4.5	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 33¢	$50.88	$46.25	-$4.63	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 31¢	$43.74	$45.86	+$2.12	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	SC RASTA Vechtaavg 30¢	$31.5	$32.03	+$0.52	38% 1338-2179 (3517)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$197.45

Value

$201.45

PnL

+$4

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

Both legs:

Rostock Seawolves$141.4569¢-$0

SC RASTA Vechta$5628¢+$4

SnakeBallCTR

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$143.02

Value

$145.26

PnL

+$2.23

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

VeryLucky888CTR

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$198

Value

$130

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$260

Value

$109.71

PnL

+$1.59

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Bayupati<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$64.92

Value

$66.86

PnL

+$1.94

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

VenusianCTR<$100

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$65.38

Value

$60.88

PnL

-$4.5

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

LimousinCTR<$100

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$50.88

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$4.63

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$43.74

Value

$45.86

PnL

+$2.12

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

SC RASTA Vechta

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.03

PnL

+$0.52

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Research grade

AvoidSC RASTA Vechta at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

SC RASTA Vechta

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Rostock Seawolves 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SC RASTA Vechta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.