Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wuerzburg, while the market favors Hamburg Towers (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hamburg Towers vs. Wuerzburg
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wuerzburg (100%) · Wuerzburg at 32¢ · $841 held · ends Nov 21
⚠️
Avoid
Wuerzburg
5
Wuerzburg 100%
$840.51
-$211.14
52.3¢ → 31.5¢
-40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWuerzburg at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Hamburg Towers 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpCTR | Wuerzburgavg 50¢ | $525 | $525 | +$0 | 51% 850-801 (1651) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Wuerzburgavg 54¢ | $510.34 | $283.74 | -$207.66 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Wuerzburgavg 46.3¢ | $23.46 | $20.03 | -$3.43 | 49% 1169-1236 (2405) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Wuerzburgavg 55¢ | $9.1 | $9.02 | -$0.08 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Wuerzburgavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.73 | +$0.02 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
Invested
$525
Value
$525
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
850-801 (1651)
Invested
$510.34
Value
$283.74
PnL
-$207.66
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$23.46
Value
$20.03
PnL
-$3.43
Record
49%
1169-1236 (2405)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.02
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.