Chemnitz 99 vs. Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Chemnitz 99 (38%) · Chemnitz 99 at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Chemnitz 99>99¢Basketball Loewen Braunschweig<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chemnitz 99

Consensus Traders

Chemnitz 99 38%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$153.12

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidChemnitz 99 at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chemnitz 99

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chemnitz 99100%

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chemnitz 993 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL-$93.57

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig5 traders

Total Value$558.51

Total Shares2,216

Combined PnL-$59.55

Chemnitz 99 — 38%Basketball Loewen Braunschweig — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Chemnitz 99. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBasketball Loewen Braunschweig 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasketball Loewen Braunschweig 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Basketball Loewen Braunschweig 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Chemnitz 99avg 94¢	$1.1K	$945.01	-$110.38	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
NO NotJumpCTR	Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 50¢	$525	$509.47	-$0.53	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
tradecraft<$100	Chemnitz 99avg 80¢	$40	$48.5	+$8.5	35% 516-946 (1462)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Chemnitz 99avg 79¢	$36.48	$44.79	+$8.31	47% 676-773 (1449)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 6.6¢	$54.87	$24.27	-$30.6	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 6¢	$50.54	$24.26	-$26.28	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 14¢	$1.75	$0.36	-$1.39	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Basketball Loewen Braunschweigavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.15	-$0.75	53% 1989-1729 (3718)

SnakeBall

Chemnitz 99

Invested

$1,055.39

Value

$945.01

PnL

-$110.38

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

NotJumpCTR

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

Invested

$525

Value

$509.47

PnL

-$0.53

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

tradecraft<$100

Chemnitz 99

Invested

$40

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

35%

516-946 (1462)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Chemnitz 99

Invested

$36.48

Value

$44.79

PnL

+$8.31

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

Invested

$54.87

Value

$24.27

PnL

-$30.6

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

Invested

$50.54

Value

$24.26

PnL

-$26.28

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.39

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Basketball Loewen Braunschweig

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

Research grade

AvoidChemnitz 99 at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chemnitz 99

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Chemnitz 99. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBasketball Loewen Braunschweig 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasketball Loewen Braunschweig 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Basketball Loewen Braunschweig 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chemnitz 99 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.